Related papers: The Lindy Effect
Risk and uncertainty will always be a matter of experience, luck, skills, and modelling. Leverage is another concept, which is critical for the investor decisions and results. Adaptive skills and quantitative probabilistic methods need to…
There are some real life issues that are exists in nature which has early failure. This type of problems can be modelled either by a complex distribution having more than one parameter or by finite mixture of some distribution. In this…
Individuals often develop reluctance to change their social relations, called "secondary homebody", even though their interactions with their environment evolve with time. Some memory effect is loosely present deforcing changes. In other…
The simplest field theory description of the multivariate statistics of forward rate variations over time and maturities, involves a quadratic action containing a gradient squared rigidity term. However, this choice leads to a spurious kink…
An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…
In economics and psychology, delay discounting is often used to characterize how individuals choose between a smaller immediate reward and a larger delayed reward. People with higher delay discounting rate (DDR) often choose smaller but…
Learning is a process which can update decision rules, based on past experience, such that future performance improves. Traditionally, machine learning is often evaluated under the assumption that the future will be identical to the past in…
Trading pressure from one asset can move the price of another, a phenomenon referred to as cross impact. Using tick-by-tick data spanning 5 years for 500 assets listed in the United States, we identify the features that make cross-impact…
Selection, the tendency of some traits to become more frequent than others in a population under the influence of some (natural or artificial) agency, is a key component of Darwinian evolution and countless other natural and social…
Sigmoids (AKA s-curves or logistic curves) are commonly used in a diverse spectrum of disciplines as models for time-varying phenomena showing initial acceleration followed by slowing: technology diffusion, cumulative cases of an epidemic,…
The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…
For a L\'evy process $X$ on a finite time interval consider the probability that it exceeds some fixed threshold $x>0$ while staying below $x$ at the points of a regular grid. We establish exact asymptotic behavior of this probability as…
String theory suggests modifications of our spacetime such as extra dimensions and the existence of a mininal length scale. In models with addidional dimensions, the Planck scale can be lowered to values accessible by future colliders.…
Emergence is a pregnant property in various fields. It is the fact for a phenomenon to appear surprisingly and to be such that it seems at first sight that it is not possible to predict its apparition. That is the reason why it has often…
We discuss - in what is intended to be a pedagogical fashion - a criterion, which is a lower bound on a certain ratio, for when a stock (or a similar instrument) is not a good investment in the long term, which can happen even if the…
The h-index has been shown to have predictive power. Here I report results of an empirical study showing that the increase of the h-index with time often depends for a long time on citations to rather old publications. This inert behavior…
Ranking algorithms play a crucial role in online platforms ranging from search engines to recommender systems. In this paper, we identify a surprising consequence of popularity-based rankings: the fewer the items reporting a given signal,…
Standard policy gradients weight each sampled action by advantage alone, regardless of how likely that action was under the current policy. This creates two pathologies: within a single decision context (e.g. one image or prompt), a rare…
Nonnegative probabilities that obey the sum rules may be assigned to a much wider family of sets of histories than decohering histories. The resulting {\it linearly positive histories} avoid the highly restrictive decoherence conditions and…
The complexity of human interactions with social and natural phenomena is mirrored in the way we describe our experiences through natural language. In order to retain and convey such a high dimensional information, the statistical…