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Probabilistic models based on continuous latent spaces, such as variational autoencoders, can be understood as uncountable mixture models where components depend continuously on the latent code. They have proven to be expressive tools for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-27 Alvaro H. C. Correia , Gennaro Gala , Erik Quaeghebeur , Cassio de Campos , Robert Peharz

The purpose of this dissertation is to introduce a version of Stein's method of exchangeable pairs to solve problems in measure concentration. We specifically target systems of dependent random variables, since that is where the power of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-09 Sourav Chatterjee

Multivariate peaks over thresholds modeling based on generalized Pareto distributions has up to now only been used in few and mostly 2-dimensional situations. This paper contributes theoretical understanding, physically based models,…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-05-04 Holger Rootzén , Johan Segers , Jennifer L. Wadsworth

In this paper we analyze the probability of consistency of sensor data distribution systems (SDDS), and determine suitable evaluation models. This problem is typically difficult, since a reliable model taking into account all parameters and…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2016-11-17 Mauro Femminella , Gianluca Reali

In many scientific and data-driven applications, machine learning models are increasingly used as measurement instruments, rather than merely as predictors of predefined labels. When the measurement function is learned from data, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-27 Indrė Žliobaitė

A semi-process is an analog of the semi-flow for non-autonomous differential equations or inclusions. We prove an abstract result on the existence of measurable semi-processes in the situations where there is no uniqueness. Also, we allow…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2017-07-21 Jorge E. Cardona , Lev Kapitanski

The purpose of the present paper is to establish moderate deviation principles for a rather general class of random variables fulfilling certain bounds of the cumulants. We apply a celebrated lemma of the theory of large deviations…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-09-28 Hanna Doering , Peter Eichelsbacher

Urn models for innovation capture fundamental empirical laws shared by several real-world processes. The so-called urn model with triggering includes, as particular cases, the urn representation of the two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-08 Giulio Tani Raffaelli , Margherita Lalli , Francesca Tria

We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with uniform innovations. We identify a number of regions, characterized by the location of the uniform distribution and the coupling parameter of the process,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-08 Frank Aurzada , Kilian Raschel

A new approach on the joint estimation of partially exchangeable observations is presented by constructing pairwise dependence between $m$ random density functions, each of which is modeled as a mixture of geometric stick breaking…

Conformal prediction has been a very popular method of distribution-free predictive inference in recent years in machine learning and statistics. Its popularity stems from the fact that it works as a wrapper around any prediction algorithm…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-06-07 Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

Possibilistic and qualitative POMDPs (pi-POMDPs) are counterparts of POMDPs used to model situations where the agent's initial belief or observation probabilities are imprecise due to lack of past experiences or insufficient data…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Nicolas Drougard , Florent Teichteil-Konigsbuch , Jean-Loup Farges , Didier Dubois

We explore the concept of a consistent exchangeable survival process - a joint distribution of survival times in which the risk set evolves as a continuous-time Markov process with homogeneous transition rates. We show a correspondence with…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-08-10 Walter Dempsey , Peter McCullagh

Bayesian inference provides principled uncertainty quantification, but accurate posterior sampling with MCMC can be computationally prohibitive for modern applications. Variational inference (VI) offers a scalable alternative and often…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-14 Laura Battaglia , Stefano Cortinovis , Chris Holmes , David T. Frazier , Jack Jewson

Based on previous work of Paul Ressel and myself, I show that the space of all "continuous" exchangeable probability measures on a certain set of order processes is a Bauer simplex.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Ulrich Hirth

In this paper, we derive results about the limiting distribution of the empirical magnetization vector and the maximum likelihood (ML) estimates of the natural parameters in the tensor Curie-Weiss Potts model. Our results reveal…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-07-25 Sanchayan Bhowal , Somabha Mukherjee

P\'olya urns are urns where at each unit of time a ball is drawn and replaced with some other balls according to its colour. We introduce a more general model: the replacement rule depends on the colour of the drawn ball and the value of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-12-04 Cyril Banderier , Philippe Marchal , Michael Wallner

A mixture preorder is a preorder on a mixture space (such as a convex set) that is compatible with the mixing operation. In decision theoretic terms, it satisfies the central expected utility axiom of strong independence. We consider when a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2021-02-16 David McCarthy , Kalle Mikkola , Teruji Thomas

We study which outcomes are implementable by disclosing coarse statistics of a data-generating process rather than its full distribution. Players observe data whose joint distribution is only partially known: they know the expectations of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-11 Francesco Giordano

Discrete random probability measures and the exchangeable random partitions they induce are key tools for addressing a variety of estimation and prediction problems in Bayesian inference. Indeed, many popular nonparametric priors, such as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-03-03 P. De Blasi , S. Favaro , A. Lijoi , R. H. Mena , I. Pruenster , M. Ruggiero