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Algorithms are commonly used to predict outcomes under a particular decision or intervention, such as predicting whether an offender will succeed on parole if placed under minimal supervision. Generally, to learn such counterfactual…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-04-19 Amanda Coston , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Understanding climate dynamics requires going beyond correlations in observational data to uncover their underlying causal process. Latent drivers, such as atmospheric processes, play a critical role in temporal dynamics, while direct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-10 Minghao Fu , Biwei Huang , Zijian Li , Yujia Zheng , Ignavier Ng , Guangyi Chen , Yingyao Hu , Kun Zhang

Reinforcement learning algorithms are typically designed for discrete-time dynamics, even though the underlying real-world control systems are often continuous in time. In this paper, we study the problem of continuous-time reinforcement…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Klemens Iten , Lenart Treven , Bhavya Sukhija , Florian Dörfler , Andreas Krause

Motivated by various random variations of Hegselmann-Krause model for opinion dynamics and gossip algorithm in an endogenously changing environment, we propose a general framework for the study of endogenously varying random averaging…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2014-01-15 Behrouz Touri , Cedric Langbort

Real-world robots must operate under evolving dynamics caused by changing operating conditions, external disturbances, and unmodeled effects. These may appear as gradual drifts, transient fluctuations, or abrupt shifts, demanding real-time…

Robotics · Computer Science 2025-12-17 Rishabh Dev Yadav , Avirup Das , Hongyu Song , Samuel Kaski , Wei Pan

Recommender systems play an essential role in the choices people make in domains such as entertainment, shopping, food, news, employment, and education. The machine learning models underlying these recommender systems are often enormously…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2023-08-30 Sahil Verma , Ashudeep Singh , Varich Boonsanong , John P. Dickerson , Chirag Shah

While AI algorithms have shown remarkable success in various fields, their lack of transparency hinders their application to real-life tasks. Although explanations targeted at non-experts are necessary for user trust and human-AI…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Jasmina Gajcin , Ivana Dusparic

Counterfactual data augmentation (CDA) -- i.e., adding minimally perturbed inputs during training -- helps reduce model reliance on spurious correlations and improves generalization to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. Prior work on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-11-02 Tanay Dixit , Bhargavi Paranjape , Hannaneh Hajishirzi , Luke Zettlemoyer

We posit that autoregressive flow models are well-suited to performing a range of causal inference tasks - ranging from causal discovery to making interventional and counterfactual predictions. In particular, we exploit the fact that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-07-28 Ricardo Pio Monti , Ilyes Khemakhem , Aapo Hyvarinen

Models of how things spread often assume that transmission mechanisms are fixed over time. However, social contagions--the spread of ideas, beliefs, innovations--can lose or gain in momentum as they spread: ideas can get reinforced, beliefs…

We propose a formal model for counterfactual estimation with unobserved confounding in "data-rich" settings, i.e., where there are a large number of units and a large number of measurements per unit. Our model provides a bridge between the…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-04-03 Alberto Abadie , Anish Agarwal , Devavrat Shah

Explainable machine learning (ML) has gained traction in recent years due to the increasing adoption of ML-based systems in many sectors. Algorithmic Recourses (ARs) provide "what if" feedback of the form "if an input datapoint were x'…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-20 Sahil Verma , Keegan Hines , John P. Dickerson

Counterfactual explanations (CEs) aim to enhance the interpretability of machine learning models by illustrating how alterations in input features would affect the resulting predictions. Common CE approaches require an additional model and…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-10-02 Matan Atad , David Schinz , Hendrik Moeller , Robert Graf , Benedikt Wiestler , Daniel Rueckert , Nassir Navab , Jan S. Kirschke , Matthias Keicher

Counterfactual explanations, and their associated algorithmic recourse, are typically leveraged to understand, explain, and potentially alter a prediction coming from a black-box classifier. In this paper, we propose to extend the use of…

This work introduces a framework to diagnose the strengths and shortcomings of Autonomous Vehicle (AV) collision avoidance technology with synthetic yet realistic potential collision scenarios adapted from real-world, collision-free data.…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-18 Robert Dyro , Matthew Foutter , Ruolin Li , Luigi Di Lillo , Edward Schmerling , Xilin Zhou , Marco Pavone

Currently, machine learning is widely used across various domains, including time series data analysis. However, some machine learning models function as black boxes, making interpretability a critical concern. One approach to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-01 Keita Kinjo

One of the prominent methods for explaining the decision of a machine-learning classifier is by a counterfactual example. Most current algorithms for generating such examples in the textual domain are based on generative language models.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-19 Daniel Gilo , Shaul Markovitch

Inferring causal relationships between event pairs in a temporal sequence is applicable in many domains such as healthcare, manufacturing, and transportation. Most existing work on causal inference primarily focuses on event types within…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-16 Kazi Tasnim Zinat , Yun Zhou , Xiang Lyu , Yawei Wang , Zhicheng Liu , Panpan Xu

Causal representation learning has attracted significant research interest during the past few years, as a means for improving model generalization and robustness. Causal representations of interventional image pairs (also called…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Panagiotis Alimisis , Christos Diou

Counterfactual inference is a useful tool for comparing outcomes of interventions on complex systems. It requires us to represent the system in form of a structural causal model, complete with a causal diagram, probabilistic assumptions on…