Related papers: Sampling and Filtering with Markov Chains

Poisson's equation has a lot of applications in various areas. Usually it is hard to derive the explicit expression of the solution of Poisson's equation for a Markov chain on an infinitely many state space. We will present a computational…

Stochastic volatility models are the backbone of financial engineering. We study both continuous time diffusions as well as discrete time models. We propose two novel approaches to estimating stochastic volatility diffusions, one using…

The problem of nonlinear filtering has engendered a surprising number of mathematical techniques for its treatment. A notable example is the change-of--probability-measure method originally introduced by Kallianpur and Striebel to derive…

We consider the problem of filtering an unseen Markov chain from noisy observations, in the presence of uncertainty regarding the parameters of the processes involved. Using the theory of nonlinear expectations, we describe the uncertainty…

Continuous-time Markov processes over finite state-spaces are widely used to model dynamical processes in many fields of natural and social science. Here, we introduce an maximum likelihood estimator for constructing such models from data…

For Markov processes evolving on multiple time-scales a combination of large component scalings and averaging of rapid fluctuations can lead to useful limits for model approximation. A general approach to proving a law of large numbers to a…

Suppose that we are given a time series where consecutive samples are believed to come from a probabilistic source, that the source changes from time to time and that the total number of sources is fixed. Our objective is to estimate the…

Markov chain Monte Carlo is widely used in a variety of scientific applications to generate approximate samples from intractable distributions. A thorough understanding of the convergence and mixing properties of these Markov chains can be…

Rule-based modelling allows to represent molecular interactions in a compact and natural way. The underlying molecular dynamics, by the laws of stochastic chemical kinetics, behaves as a continuous-time Markov chain. However, this Markov…

A classical approach for approximating expectations of functions w.r.t. partially known distributions is to compute the average of function values along a trajectory of a Metropolis-Hastings (MH) Markov chain. A key part in the MH algorithm…

This paper proposes a probabilistic approach to the problem of intrinsic filtering of a system on a matrix Lie group with invariance properties. The problem of an invariant continuous-time model with discrete-time measurements is cast into…

Biological systems need to react to stimuli over a broad spectrum of timescales. If and how this ability can emerge without external fine-tuning is a puzzle. We consider here this problem in discrete Markovian systems, where we can leverage…

Markov chains are a common framework for individual-based state and time discrete models in ecology and evolution. Their use, however, is largely limited to systems with a low number of states, since the transition matrices involved pose…

We will outline novel approaches to derive model invariants for hidden Markov and related models. These approaches are based on a theoretical framework that arises from viewing random processes as elements of the vector space of string…

We propose a method to efficiently integrate truncated probability densities. The method uses Markov chain Monte Carlo method to sample from a probability density matching the function being integrated. The required normalisation or…

A novel solution to the smoothing problem for multi-object dynamical systems is proposed and evaluated. The systems of interest contain an unknown and varying number of dynamical objects that are partially observed under noisy and corrupted…

Stochastic reaction network models arise in intracellular chemical reactions, epidemiological models and other population process models, and are a class of continuous time Markov chains which have the nonnegative integer lattice as state…

We investigate the impact of filter choice on forecast accuracy in state space models. The filters are used both to estimate the posterior distribution of the parameters, via a particle marginal Metropolis-Hastings (PMMH) algorithm, and to…

We develop a model for credit rating migration that accounts for the impact of economic state fluctuations on default probabilities. The joint process for the economic state and the rating is modelled as a time-homogeneous Markov chain.…

Stochastic kinetic models (SKMs) are increasingly used to account for the inherent stochasticity exhibited by interacting populations of species in areas such as epidemiology, population ecology and systems biology. Species numbers are…