Related papers: Sampling and Filtering with Markov Chains
Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are one of the most fundamental and widely used statistical tools for modeling discrete time series. In general, learning HMMs from data is computationally hard (under cryptographic assumptions), and…
Monte Carlo (MC) sampling methods are widely applied in Bayesian inference, system simulation and optimization problems. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are a well-known class of MC methods which generate a Markov chain with…
In this paper it is shown that adaptive importance sampling algorithms converge at exponential rate for Markov chain expectation problems that admit a combination of a filtered estimator and a Markov zero-variance measure. It extends a…
This article considers the application of particle filtering to continuous-discrete optimal filtering problems, where the system model is a stochastic differential equation, and noisy measurements of the system are obtained at discrete…
The problem of efficiently sampling from a set of(undirected) graphs with a given degree sequence has many applications. One approach to this problem uses a simple Markov chain, which we call the switch chain, to perform the sampling. The…
The problem of discrete universal filtering, in which the components of a discrete signal emitted by an unknown source and corrupted by a known DMC are to be causally estimated, is considered. A family of filters are derived, and are shown…
A Markov-chain model is developed for the purpose estimation of the cure rate of non-performing loans. The technique is performed collectively, on portfolios and it can be applicable in the process of calculation of credit impairment. It is…
In this paper we present an algorithm for pricing barrier options in one-dimensional Markov models. The approach rests on the construction of an approximating continuous-time Markov chain that closely follows the dynamics of the given…
The stochastic growth-fragmentation model describes the temporal evolution of a structured cell population through a discrete-time and continuous-state Markov chain. The simulations of this stochastic process and its invariant measure are…
We present an importance sampling algorithm that can produce realisations of Markovian epidemic models that exactly match observations, taken to be the number of a single event type over a period of time. The importance sampling can be used…
Sampling from complicated probability distributions is a hard computational problem arising in many fields, including statistical physics, optimization, and machine learning. Quantum computers have recently been used to sample from…
Practitioners use Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) in different problems for about sixty years. Besides, Conditional Random Fields (CRFs) are an alternative to HMMs and appear in the literature as different and somewhat concurrent models. We…
Closed-form stochastic filtering equations can be derived in a general setting where probability distributions are replaced by some specific outer measures. In this article, we study how the principles of the sequential Monte Carlo method…
We present an efficient finite difference method for the computation of parameter sensitivities that is applicable to a wide class of continuous time Markov chain models. The estimator for the method is constructed by coupling the perturbed…
This paper deals with a complete bipartite matching problem with the objective of finding an optimal matching that maximizes a certain generic predefined utility function on the set of all matchings. After proving the NP-hardness of the…
We consider the discrete-time filtering problem in scenarios where the observation noise is degenerate or low. More precisely, one is given access to a discrete time observation sequence which at any time $k$ depends only on the state of an…
Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous…
Markov chains are a natural and well understood tool for describing one-dimensional patterns in time or space. We show how to infer $k$-th order Markov chains, for arbitrary $k$, from finite data by applying Bayesian methods to both…
Price movements of stock market are not totally random. In fact, what drives the financial market and what pattern financial time series follows have long been the interest that attracts economists, mathematicians and most recently computer…
Many natural and engineered systems can be modeled as discrete state Markov processes. Often, only a subset of states are directly observable. Inferring the conditional probability that a system occupies a particular hidden state, given the…