Related papers: Detecting changepoints in globally-indexed functio…
Leveraging available measurements of our environment can help us understand complex processes. One example is Argo Biogeochemical data, which aims to collect measurements of oxygen, nitrate, pH, and other variables at varying depths in the…
The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic 'tipping points' and large economic shocks, frequently called 'catastrophes'. The use of the phrase 'tipping points' in this context can be misleading. In…
When analyzing the mean-year trend of the Earth's surface temperature for the past 140 years one can discern two sections of monotone linear increase of temperature during two last industrial centuries. The first one begins somewhere in the…
A climate response function is introduced that consists of six exponential (low-pass) filters with weights depending as a power law on their e-folding times. The response of this two-parameter function to the combined forcings of solar…
Solar activity is an important driver of long-term climate trends and must be accounted for in climate models. Unfortunately, direct measurements of this quantity over long periods do not exist. The only observation related to solar…
Motivated by an example from remote sensing of gas emission sources, we derive two novel change point procedures for multivariate time series where, in contrast to classical change point literature, the changes are not required to be…
Atmospheric flows exhibit long-range spatiotemporal correlations manifested as the fractal geometry to the global cloud cover pattern concomitant with inverse power law form for power spectra of temporal fluctuations on all space-time…
Determining whether Global Average Temperature (GAT) is an integrated process of order 1, I(1), or is a stationary process around a trend function is crucial for detection, attribution, impact and forecasting studies of climate change. In…
Global climate change is one of main concern of modern society. To estimate this change usually one estimates the global mean temperature. Measuring and calculating the Earth's average temperature are multi-steps complex processes which…
We investigate the changing nature of the frequency, magnitude and spatial extent of extreme temperatures in Ireland from 1931 to 2022. We develop an extreme value model that captures spatial and temporal non-stationarity in extreme daily…
High-energy atmospheric muon neutrinos are detected by the IceCube Neutrino Observatory with a high rate of almost a hundred thousand events per year. Being mainly produced in meson decays in cosmic-ray-induced air showers in the upper…
We introduce a novel geometry-oriented methodology, based on the emerging tools of topological data analysis, into the change point detection framework. The key rationale is that change points are likely to be associated with changes in…
Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…
The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate…
As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…
In 2023, Sicily faced an escalating issue of uncontrolled fires, necessitating a thorough investigation into their spatio-temporal dynamics. Our study addresses this concern through point process theory. Each wildfire is treated as a unique…
In this paper, we analyze several instrumental records of temperatures at different locations by using new techniques originally developed for the analysis of extreme values of dynamical systems. We show that they have the same recurrence…
The problem of detecting the presence of a signal that can lead to a disaster is studied. A decision-maker collects data sequentially over time. At some point in time, called the change point, the distribution of data changes. This change…
Radiative forcing drives warming in the Earth system, leading to changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated radiative feedbacks. The link between changes in the top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) net radiative flux and SST patterns,…
We test the scaling performance of seven leading global climate models by using detrended fluctuation analysis. We analyse temperature records of six representative sites around the globe simulated by the models, for two different…