Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record
Abstract
The spectral view of variability is a compelling and adaptable tool for understanding variability of the climate. In Mitchell (1976) seminal paper, it was used to express, on one graph with log scales, a very wide range of climate variations from millions of years to days. The spectral approach is particularly useful for suggesting causal links between forcing variability and climate response variability. However, a substantial degree of variability is intrinsic and the Earth system may respond to external forcing in a complex manner. There has been an enormous amount of work on understanding climate variability over the last decades. Hence in this paper, we address the question: Can we (after 40 years) update the Mitchell (1976) diagram and provide it with a better interpretation? By reviewing both the extended observations available for such a diagram and new methodological developments in the study of the interaction between internal and forced variability over a wide range of timescales, we give a positive answer to this question. In addition, we review alternative approaches to the spectral decomposition and pose some challenges for a more detailed quantification of climate variability.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2101.08050,
title = {Quantification and interpretation of the climate variability record},
author = {Anna S. von der Heydt and Peter Ashwin and Charles D. Camp and Michel Crucifix and Henk A. Dijkstra and Peter Ditlevsen and Timothy M. Lenton},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2101.08050},
year = {2021}
}