Related papers: Detecting changepoints in globally-indexed functio…
System identification method (SIM) was used to evaluate the Earth equilibrium climate sensitivity. According to our simulations, the equilibrium climate sensitivity was found to be between 2 deg C and 7 deg C. Analysis of the changes in…
In this study we used HadCRUT4 temperature anomalies for 1950-2013 years in order to investigate properties of recent warming. Our aim was to separate changes produced by short-term ENSO variations and to look on temporal and spatial…
This paper develops a novel change point identification method for high-dimensional data using random projections. By projecting high-dimensional time series into a one-dimensional space, we are able to leverage the rich literature for…
We investigate the climatic effects of volcanic eruptions spanning from Mt.\ Pinatubo-sized events to super-volcanoes. The study is based on ensemble simulations in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) climate model using the…
We consider determining change points in a time series of age-specific mortality and fertility curves observed over time. We propose two detection methods for identifying these change points. The first method uses a functional cumulative…
The provision of accurate methods for predicting the climate response to anthropogenic and natural forcings is a key contemporary scientific challenge. Using a simplified and efficient open-source general circulation model of the atmosphere…
We study the problem of change-point detection and localisation for functional data sequentially observed on a general d-dimensional space, where we allow the functional curves to be either sparsely or densely sampled. Data of this form…
Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…
Climate is known for being characterised by strong non-linearity and chaotic behaviour. Nevertheless, few studies in climate science adopt statistical methods specifically designed for non-stationary or non-linear systems. Here we show how…
How strong are quantitative contributions of the key natural modes of climate variability and the anthropogenic factor characterized by the changes of the radiative forcing of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to the trends of the surface…
Quantitative estimates of the contributions of the anthropogenic forcing, characterized by changes in the radiative forcing of atmospheric greenhouse gases (CO2, in particular), and solar activity variations to the trends of the global…
Instabilities and long term shifts in seasons, whether induced by natural drivers or human activities, pose great disruptive threats to ecological, agricultural, and social systems. Here, we propose, measure, and explore two fundamental…
The climate system is a forced, dissipative, nonlinear, complex and heterogeneous system that is out of thermodynamic equilibrium. The system exhibits natural variability on many scales of motion, in time as well as space, and it is subject…
Climate sensitivity is defined as the change in global mean equilibrium temperature after a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration and provides a simple measure of global warming. An early estimate of climate sensitivity, 1.5-4.5{\deg}C,…
We determine the volcano climate sensitivity and response time for the Mount Pinatubo eruption. This is achieved using observational measurements of the temperature anomalies of the lower troposphere and the aerosol optical density (AOD) in…
Assessing the consistency between short-term global temperature trends in observations and climate model projections is a challenging problem. While climate models capture many processes governing short-term climate fluctuations, they are…
Using observational data and an elementary rigorous statistical fact it is easily shown that the distribution of Earth's climate is non-stationary. Examination of records of hundreds of local Industrial Era temperature histories in the…
What transpires from recent research is that temperatures and radiative forcing seem to be characterized by a linear trend with two changes in the rate of growth. The first occurs in the early 60s and indicates a very large increase in the…
The potential for complex systems to exhibit tipping points in which an equilibrium state undergoes a sudden and often irreversible shift is well established, but prediction of these events using standard forecast modeling techniques is…
We propose a novel Bayesian framework for changepoint detection in large-scale spherical spatiotemporal data, with broad applicability in environmental and climate sciences. Our approach models changepoints as spatially dependent…