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The rapidly shrinking Arctic sea ice is changing weather patterns and disrupting the balance of nature. Dynamics of Arctic weather variability (WV) plays a crucial role in weather forecasting and is closely related to extreme weather…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-12-07 Jun Meng , Jingfang Fan , Uma S Bhatt , Jürgen Kurths

Accurate forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity - particularly during periods of rapid intensification and rapid weakening - remains a challenge for operational meteorology, with high-stakes implications for disaster preparedness…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-29 Hongyu Qu , Hongxiong Xu , Lin Dong , Chunyi Xiang , Gaozhen Nie

The increase in Arctic marine activity due to rapid warming and significant sea ice loss necessitates highly reliable, short-term sea ice forecasts to ensure maritime safety and operational efficiency. In this work, we present a novel…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-11-24 Stefan Maria Ailuro , Anna Nedorubova , Timofey Grigoryev , Evgeny Burnaev , Vladimir Vanovskiy

Simulating abundances of stable water isotopologues, i.e. molecules differing in their isotopic composition, within climate models allows for comparisons with proxy data and, thus, for testing hypotheses about past climate and validating…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-11-28 Jonathan Wider , Jakob Kruse , Nils Weitzel , Janica C. Bühler , Ullrich Köthe , Kira Rehfeld

Satellite altimeter observations retrieved since 1993 show that the global mean sea level is rising at an unprecedented rate (3.4mm/year). With almost three decades of observations, we can now investigate the contributions of anthropogenic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-08-07 Saumya Sinha , John Fasullo , R. Steven Nerem , Claire Monteleoni

Rapidly diminishing Arctic summer sea ice is a strong signal of the pace of global climate change. We provide point, interval, and density forecasts for four measures of Arctic sea ice: area, extent, thickness, and volume. Importantly, we…

Rapid changes in Earth's cryosphere caused by human activity can lead to significant environmental impacts. Computer models provide a useful tool for understanding the behavior and projecting the future of Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets.…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-08-01 Won Chang , Bledar A. Konomi , Georgios Karagiannis , Yawen Guan , Murali Haran

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

Accurate ocean forecasting systems are essential for understanding marine dynamics, which play a crucial role in sectors such as shipping, aquaculture, environmental monitoring, and coastal risk management. Traditional numerical solvers,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-01 Daniel Holmberg , Emanuela Clementi , Italo Epicoco , Teemu Roos

Variability in sea ice conditions, combined with strong couplings to the atmosphere and the ocean, lead to a broad range of complex sea ice dynamics. More in-situ measurements are needed to better identify the phenomena and mechanisms that…

Deep-learning (DL) weather prediction models offer some notable advantages over traditional physics-based models, including auto-differentiability and low computational cost, enabling detailed diagnostics of forecast errors. Using our…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-07-23 Uros Perkan , Ziga Zaplotnik , Gregor Skok

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts help with managing the marine ecosystem and the aquaculture impacted by anthropogenic climate change. Numerical dynamical models are resource intensive for SST forecasts; machine learning (ML) models…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-05-17 Ding Ning , Varvara Vetrova , Karin R. Bryan

Time-to-Collision (TTC) forecasting is a critical task in collision prevention, requiring precise temporal prediction and comprehending both local and global patterns encapsulated in a video, both spatially and temporally. To address the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-04-20 Nishq Poorav Desai , Ali Etemad , Michael Greenspan

In situ and remotely sensed observations have potential to facilitate data-driven predictive models for oceanography. A suite of machine learning models, including regression, decision tree and deep learning approaches were developed to…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-06-24 Stefan Wolff , Fearghal O'Donncha , Bei Chen

Satellite-derived data products and climate model simulations of geophysical variables like precipitation, often exhibit systematic biases compared to in-situ measurements. Bias correction and spatial downscaling are fundamental components…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Sumanta Chandra Mishra Sharma , Adway Mitra , Auroop Ratan Ganguly

Various studies identified possible drivers of extremes of Arctic sea ice reduction, such as observed in the summers of 2007 and 2012, including preconditioning, local feedback mechanisms, oceanic heat transport and the synoptic- and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-09 Jerome Sauer , Jonathan Demaeyer , Giuseppe Zappa , François Massonnet , Francesco Ragone

Our ability to predict the future of Arctic sea ice is limited by ice's sensitivity to detailed surface conditions such as the distribution of snow and melt ponds. Snow on top of the ice decreases ice's thermal conductivity, increases its…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2022-03-09 Predrag Popović , Justin Finkel , Mary C. Silber , Dorian S. Abbot

Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-10-25 Subhankar Ghosh , Shuai An , Arun Sharma , Jayant Gupta , Shashi Shekhar , Aneesh Subramanian

IceCloudNet is a novel method based on machine learning able to predict high-quality vertically resolved cloud ice water contents (IWC) and ice crystal number concentrations (N$_\textrm{ice}$). The predictions come at the spatio-temporal…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-08 Kai Jeggle , Mikolaj Czerkawski , Federico Serva , Bertrand Le Saux , David Neubauer , Ulrike Lohmann

During summer, melt ponds have a significant influence on Arctic sea-ice albedo. The melt pond fraction (MPF) also has the ability to forecast the Arctic sea-ice in a certain period. It is important to retrieve accurate melt pond fraction…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2017-04-17 Qi Liu , Yawen Zhang , Qin Lv , Li Shang
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