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Snow is a crucial element of the sea ice system, affecting sea ice growth and decay due to its low thermal conductivity and high albedo. Despite its importance, present-day climate models have an idealized representation of snow, often…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-13 Ayush Prasad , Ioanna Merkouriadi , Aleksi Nummelin

The sea-ice cover of the Arctic Ocean is an important element of the climate and ocean system in the Northern Hemisphere as it impacts albedo, atmospheric pressure regimes, CO2-exchange at the ocean/atmosphere interface as well as the North…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-02-09 Claude Hillaire-Marcel , Anne de Vernal , Michel Crucifix

Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1-14 day) forecast timescales. Here we take the machine learning weather model ACE2,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-01 Chris Kent , Adam A. Scaife , Nick J. Dunstone , Doug Smith , Steven C. Hardiman , Tom Dunstan , Oliver Watt-Meyer

Deep Learning is gaining traction with geophysics community to understand subsurface structures, such as fault detection or salt body in seismic data. This study describes using deep learning method for iceberg or ship recognition with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-12-19 Cheng Zhan , Licheng Zhang , Zhenzhen Zhong , Sher Didi-Ooi , Youzuo Lin , Yunxi Zhang , Shujiao Huang , Changchun Wang

Arctic sea ice extent has drawn increasing interest and alarm from geoscientists, owing to its rapid decline. In this article, we propose a Bayesian spatio-temporal hierarchical statistical model for binary Arctic sea ice data over two…

Applications · Statistics 2020-03-17 Bohai Zhang , Noel Cressie

Arctic sea ice plays an important role in the global climate. Sea ice models governed by physical equations have been used to simulate the state of the ice including characteristics such as ice thickness, concentration, and motion. More…

Arctic sea ice has steadily diminished as atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have increased. Using observed data from 1979 to 2019, we estimate a close contemporaneous linear relationship between Arctic sea ice area and cumulative…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-07-10 Francis X. Diebold , Glenn D. Rudebusch

Multi-year-to-decadal climate prediction is a key tool in understanding the range of potential regional and global climate futures. Here, we present a framework that combines machine learning and analog forecasting for predictions on these…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-02-26 M. A. Fernandez , Elizabeth A. Barnes

As the role played by statistical and computational sciences in climate and environmental modelling and prediction becomes more important, Machine Learning researchers are becoming more aware of the relevance of their work to help tackle…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-23 Federico Amato , Fabian Guignard , Sylvain Robert , Mikhail Kanevski

Although high-resolution mapping of Pan-Arctic sea ice with reliable corresponding uncertainty is essential for operational sea ice concentration (SIC) charting, it is a difficult task due to some key challenges, e.g., the subtle nature of…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-10-01 Mabel Heffring , Lincoln Linlin Xu

There is ongoing debate over whether Arctic sea-ice has already passed a `tipping point', or whether it will do so in the future. Several recent studies argue that the loss of summer sea ice does not involve an irreversible bifurcation,…

Geophysics · Physics 2013-01-23 Valerie N. Livina , Timothy M. Lenton

We propose a reduced-form benchmark predictive model (BPM) for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. We visually detail the evolution of…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-01-04 Francis X. Diebold , Maximilian Gobel

Rapid changes and increasing climatic variability across the widely varied Koppen-Geiger regions of northern Europe generate significant needs for adaptation. Regional planning needs high-resolution projected temperatures. This work…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-11-07 Parthiban Loganathan , Elias Zea , Ricardo Vinuesa , Evelyn Otero

Classifying the state of the atmosphere into a finite number of large-scale circulation regimes is a popular way of investigating teleconnections, the predictability of severe weather events, and climate change. Here, we investigate a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-02 Andreas Holm Nielsen , Alexandros Iosifidis , Henrik Karstoft

Accurate prediction of global sea surface temperature at sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is critical for drought and flood forecasting, as well as for improving disaster preparedness in human society. Government departments or…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-09-10 Longhao Wang , Xuanze Zhang , L. Ruby Leung , Francis H. S. Chiew , Amir AghaKouchak , Kairan Ying , Yongqiang Zhang

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-09-16 A. Navarra , G. G. Navarra

Sea surface height observations provided by satellite altimetry since 1993 show a rising rate (3.4 mm/year) for global mean sea level. While on average, sea level has risen 10 cm over the last 30 years, there is considerable regional…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-10 Saumya Sinha , John Fasullo , R. Steven Nerem , Claire Monteleoni

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…

The coupled Arctic system is in rapid transition and is set to undergo further dramatic changes over the coming decades. These changes will lead most likely to an ice-free ocean in summer, expected before mid-century. The Arctic will become…

Sea ice, crucial to the Arctic and Earth's climate, requires consistent monitoring and high-resolution mapping. Manual sea ice mapping, however, is time-consuming and subjective, prompting the need for automated deep learning-based…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Behzad Vahedi , Benjamin Lucas , Farnoush Banaei-Kashani , Andrew P. Barrett , Walter N. Meier , Siri Jodha Khalsa , Morteza Karimzadeh