Related papers: A hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating age-s…
We use a simple SIR-like epidemic model which integrates known age-contact patterns for the United States to model the effect of age-targeted mitigation strategies for a COVID-19-like epidemic. We find that, among strategies which end with…
As the COVID-19 pandemic evolves, reliable prediction plays an important role for policy making. The classical infectious disease model SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) is a compact yet simplistic temporal model. The…
At the time of writing, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), had already resulted in more than thirty-two million cases infected and more than one million deaths worldwide.…
Due to its impact, COVID-19 has been stressing the academy to search for curing, mitigating, or controlling it. However, when it comes to controlling, there are still few studies focused on under-reporting estimates. It is believed that…
Factors such as non-uniform definitions of mortality, uncertainty in disease prevalence, and biased sampling complicate the quantification of fatality during an epidemic. Regardless of the employed fatality measure, the infected population…
Understanding the number of individuals who have been infected with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, and the extent to which social distancing policies have been effective at limiting its spread, are critical for effective policy going…
We point out an instantiation of Simpson's paradox in Covid-19 case fatality rates (CFRs): comparing a large-scale study from China (17 Feb) with early reports from Italy (9 Mar), we find that CFRs are lower in Italy for every age group,…
COVID-19 is a new pandemic disease that is affecting almost every country with a negative impact on social life and economic activities. The number of infected and deceased patients continues to increase globally. Mathematical models can…
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, has been declared a pandemic by the WHO. The structures of social contact critically determine the spread of the infection and, in the absence of vaccines, the control of these structures…
With the prevalence of COVID-19, the modeling of epidemic propagation and its analyses have played a significant role in controlling epidemics. However, individual behaviors, in particular the self-protection and migration, which have a…
The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic calls for a multi-faceted public health response comprising complementary interventions to control the spread of the disease while vaccines and therapies are developed. Many of these interventions need to be…
We provide a predictive analysis of the spread of COVID-19, also known as SARS-CoV-2, using the dataset made publicly available online by the Johns Hopkins University. Our main objective is to provide predictions of the number of infected…
Qatar has undergone distinct waves of COVID-19 infections, compounded by the emergence of variants, posing additional complexities. This research uniquely delves into the varied efficacy of existing vaccines and the pivotal role of…
The Covid-19 outbreak of 2020 has required many governments to develop mathematical-statistical models of the outbreak for policy and planning purposes. This work provides a tutorial on building a compartmental model using Susceptibles,…
In this paper, a mathematical model is proposed to analyze the dynamic behavior of COVID-19. Based on inter-city networked coupling effects, a fractional-order SEIHDR system with the real-data from 23 January to 18 March, 2020 of COVID-19…
In this paper, we introduce and study an age-structured epidemiological compartment model and its respective problem, applied but not limited to the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to investigate the role of the age of the individuals in the…
Relevance: Laboratory diagnosis of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection combined with quarantine for contacts of infected individuals affects the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infection and levels of related mortality. Practices for testing…
We study the spread of susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) infectious diseases where an individual's infectiousness and probability of recovery depend on his/her "age" of infection. We focus first on early outbreak stages when stochastic…
The number of new infections per day is a key quantity for effective epidemic management. It can be estimated relatively directly by testing of random population samples. Without such direct epidemiological measurement, other approaches are…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…