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The SIR model is the cornerstone model for mathematical epidemiology, explaining key epidemic features such as the second-order transition between disease-free and epidemic states, the initial exponential growth of outbreaks or the…
This work constructs, analyzes, and simulates a new compartmental SEIR-type model for the dynamics and potential control of the current COVID-19 pandemic. The novelty in this work is two-fold. First, the population is divided according to…
This document aims to estimate and describe the effects of the social distancing measures implemented in several countries with the expectancy of controlling the spread of COVID-19. The procedure relies on the classic…
We investigate an epidemic model based on Bailey's continuous differential system. In the continuous time domain, we extend the classical model to time-dependent coefficients and present an alternative solution method to Gleissner's…
We introduce the concept of epidemic-fitted wavelets which comprise, in particular, as special cases the number $I(t)$ of infectious individuals at time $t$ in classical SIR models and their derivatives. We present a novel method for…
We study the threshold dynamics of a stochastic SAIRS-type model with vaccination, where the role of asymptomatic and symptomatic infectious individuals is explicitly considered in the epidemic dynamics. In the model, the values of the…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, the SIRD model, to allow for time-varying parameters for real-time measurement and prediction of the trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured…
This study introduces a stochastic model of COVID-19 transmission tailored to the Colorado School of Mines campus and evaluates surveillance testing strategies within a university context. Enhancing the conventional SEIR framework with…
Networks of contacts capable of spreading infectious diseases are often observed to be highly heterogeneous, with the majority of individuals having fewer contacts than the mean, and a significant minority having relatively very many…
This is work in progress. We make it accessible hoping that people might find the idea useful. We propose a discrete, recursive 5-compartment model for the spread of epidemics, which we call {\em SEPIR-model}. Under mild assumptions which…
We have established a novel mathematical model that considers various aspects of the spreading of the virus, including, the transmission based on being in the latent period, environment to human transmission, governmental decisions, and…
In the simple mean-field SIS and SIR epidemic models, infection is transmitted from infectious to susceptible members of a finite population by independent $p-$coin tosses. Spatial variants of these models are proposed, in which finite…
Cholera, an acute diarrheal disease, is a serious concern in developing and underdeveloped areas. A qualitative understanding of cholera epidemics aims to foresee transmission patterns based on reported data and mechanistic models. The…
We study the spread of disease in an SIS model. The model considered is a time-varying, switched model, in which the parameters of the SIS model are subject to abrupt change. We show that the joint spectral radius can be used as a threshold…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
This paper introduces a dynamic panel SIR (DP-SIR) model to investigate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics with panel data from 9 countries across the globe. By constructing scenarios…
This research presents an advanced fractional-order compartmental model designed to delve into the complexities of COVID-19 transmission dynamics, specifically accounting for the influence of environmental pathogens on disease spread. By…
Large-scale crises, including wars and pandemics, have repeatedly shaped human history, and their simultaneous occurrence presents profound challenges to societies. Understanding the dynamics of epidemic spread during warfare is essential…
The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The…
Contacts' temporal ordering and dynamics are crucial for understanding the transmission of infectious diseases. We introduce an interaction-driven model of an airborne disease over contact networks. We demonstrate our interaction-driven…