Related papers: Extreme events generated in microcavity lasers and…

Extreme events (sometimes also called optical rogue waves), in the form of pulses of extraordinary intensity, are easily observed in its chaotic regime if the Fresnel number of the cavity is high. This result suggests that the nonlinear…

Extreme events, such as rogue waves, earthquakes and stock market crashes, occur spontaneously in many dynamical systems. Because of their usually adverse consequences, quantification, prediction and mitigation of extreme events are highly…

Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious…

Extreme weather events have an enormous impact on society and are expected to become more frequent and severe with climate change. In this context, resilience planning becomes crucial for risk mitigation and coping with these extreme…

Extreme events, such as market crashes, natural disasters, and pandemics, are rare but catastrophic, often triggering cascading failures across interconnected systems. Accurate prediction and early warning can help minimize losses and…

Predicting extreme events in chaotic systems, characterized by rare but intensely fluctuating properties, is of great importance due to their impact on the performance and reliability of a wide range of systems. Some examples include…

Extreme events gain the attention of researchers due to their utmost importance in various contexts ranging from finance to climatology. This brings such recurrent events to the limelight of attention in interdisciplinary research. A…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…

Extreme or rogue waves are large and unexpected waves appearing with higher probability than predicted by Gaussian statistics. Although their formation is explained by both linear and nonlinear wave propagation, nonlinearity has been…

Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…

Extreme events occur in many spatially extended dynamical systems, often devastatingly affecting human life which makes their reliable prediction and efficient prevention highly desirable. We study the prediction and prevention of extreme…

We study deterministic systems, composed of excitable units of FitzHugh-Nagumo type, that are capable of self-generating and self-terminating strong deviations from their regular dynamics without the influence of noise or parameter change.…

We report measurements that show extreme events in the statistics of resonant radiation emitted from spatiotemporal light bullets. We trace the origin of these extreme events back to instabilities leading to steep gradients in the temporal…

This work proposes an innovative approach using machine learning to predict extreme events in time series of chaotic dynamical systems. The research focuses on the time series of the H\'enon map, a two-dimensional model known for its…

The predictability of extreme intensity pulses emitted by an optically injected semiconductor laser is studied numerically, by using a well-known rate equation model. We show that symbolic ordinal time-series analysis allows to identify the…

We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…

Extreme precipitation wreaks havoc throughout the world, causing billions of dollars in damage and uprooting communities, ecosystems, and economies. Accurate extreme precipitation prediction allows more time for preparation and disaster…

Rare events are processes that occur upon the emergence of unlikely fluctuations. Unlike what their name suggests, rare events are fairly ubiquitous in nature, as the occurrence of many structural transformations in biology and material…

We study the problem of predicting rare critical transition events for a class of slow-fast nonlinear dynamical systems. The state of the system of interest is described by a slow process, whereas a faster process drives its evolution and…

In chaotic dynamical systems, extreme events manifest in time series as unpredictable large-amplitude peaks. Although deterministic, extreme events appear seemingly randomly, which makes their forecasting difficult. By learning the dynamics…