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We consider the problem of adaptive estimation of the regression function in a framework where we replace ergodicity assumptions (such as independence or mixing) by another structural assumption on the model. Namely, we propose adaptive…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-11-03 Sylvain Delattre , Stéphane Gaïffas

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) describe dynamical systems evolving deterministically in continuous time. Accurate data-driven modeling of systems as ODEs, a central problem across the natural sciences, remains challenging,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Maximilian Mauel , Manuel Hinz , Patrick Seifner , David Berghaus , Ramses J. Sanchez

We study the estimation of time-homogeneous drift functions in multivariate stochastic differential equations with known diffusion coefficient, from multiple trajectories observed at high frequency over a fixed time horizon. We formulate…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-23 Marcos Tapia Costa , Nikolas Kantas , George Deligiannidis

Reliable optimal control is challenging when the dynamics of a nonlinear system are unknown and only infrequent, noisy output measurements are available. This work addresses this setting of limited sensing by formulating a Bayesian prior…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-21 Robert Lefringhausen , Theodor Springer , Sandra Hirche

Neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are an emerging class of deep learning models for dynamical systems. They are particularly useful for learning an ODE vector field from observed trajectories (i.e., inverse problems). We here…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-23 Katharina Ott , Michael Tiemann , Philipp Hennig

Accurately learning solution operators for time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) from sparse and irregular data remains a challenging task. Recurrent DeepONet extensions inherit the discrete-time limitations of…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-07-04 Diab W. Abueidda , Mbebo Nonna , Panos Pantidis , Mostafa E. Mobasher

Recovering continuous-time dynamics from discrete observations is difficult because local supervision (e.g., pointwise regression targets, derivative approximations, or equation residuals) loses fidelity as the observation interval grows.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Yuxiang Luo , Andrew Perrault

In several applications such as databases, planning, and sensor networks, parameters such as selectivity, load, or sensed values are known only with some associated uncertainty. The performance of such a system (as captured by some…

Data Structures and Algorithms · Computer Science 2010-01-28 Sudipto Guha , Kamesh Munagala

Missing data and noisy observations pose significant challenges for reliably predicting events from irregularly sampled multivariate time series (longitudinal) data. Imputation methods, which are typically used for completing the data prior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-17 Hossein Soleimani , James Hensman , Suchi Saria

Many complex real world phenomena exhibit abrupt, intermittent or jumping behaviors, which are more suitable to be described by stochastic differential equations under non-Gaussian L\'evy noise. Among these complex phenomena, the most…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-09-15 Wei Wei , Ting Gao , Jinqiao Duan , Xiaoli Chen

This work aims to estimate the drift and diffusion functions in stochastic differential equations (SDEs) driven by a particular class of L\'evy processes with finite jump intensity, using neural networks. We propose a framework that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-10 Jose-Hermenegildo Ramirez-Gonzalez , Ying Sun

Accurate estimation of parameters is paramount in developing high-fidelity models for complex dynamical systems. Model-based optimal experiment design (OED) approaches enable systematic design of dynamic experiments to generate input-output…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2014-11-12 Ali Mesbah , Stefan Streif

We present a parameter estimation method in Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models. Due to complex relationships between parameters and states the use of standard techniques such as nonlinear least squares can lead to the presence of…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-10-11 Quentin Clairon

We propose a machine learning framework to accelerate numerical computations of time-dependent ODEs and PDEs. Our method is based on recasting (generalizations of) existing numerical methods as artificial neural networks, with a set of…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2019-03-08 Siddhartha Mishra

Standard algorithms for finding the shortest path in a graph require that the cost of a path be additive in edge costs, and typically assume that costs are deterministic. We consider the problem of uncertain edge costs, with potential…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-21 Michael P. Wellman , Matthew Ford , Kenneth Larson

In practical applications, the efficacy of a control algorithm relies critically on the accurate knowledge of the parameters and states of the underlying system. However, obtaining these quantities in practice is often challenging. Adaptive…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-18 Anchita Dey , Soutrik Bandyopadhyay , Shubhendu Bhasin

We consider the noise-induced transitions in the randomly perturbed discrete logistic map from a linearly stable periodic orbit consisting of T periodic points. The traditional large deviation theory and asymptotic analysis for small noise…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2016-04-20 Yu Cao , Ling Lin , Xiang Zhou

Data-driven, model-free analytics are natural choices for discovery and forecasting of complex, nonlinear systems. Methods that operate in the system state-space require either an explicit multidimensional state-space, or, one approximated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-15 Joseph Park , Gerald M Pao , Erik Stabenau , George Sugihara , Thomas Lorimer

Recent advances in the theory of Neural Operators (NOs) have enabled fast and accurate computation of the solutions to complex systems described by partial differential equations (PDEs). Despite their great success, current NO-based…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Ashutosh Singh , Ricardo Augusto Borsoi , Deniz Erdogmus , Tales Imbiriba

Accurate quantification of model uncertainty has long been recognized as a fundamental requirement for trusted AI. In regression tasks, uncertainty is typically quantified using prediction intervals calibrated to a specific operating point,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 Jiri Navratil , Benjamin Elder , Matthew Arnold , Soumya Ghosh , Prasanna Sattigeri
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