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The Path-dependent Neural Jump ODE (PD-NJ-ODE) is a model for online prediction of generic (possibly non-Markovian) stochastic processes with irregular (in time) and potentially incomplete (with respect to coordinates) observations. It is a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-29 Florian Krach , Josef Teichmann

This paper studies the problem of forecasting general stochastic processes using a path-dependent extension of the Neural Jump ODE (NJ-ODE) framework \citep{herrera2021neural}. While NJ-ODE was the first framework to establish convergence…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-07-08 Florian Krach , Marc Nübel , Josef Teichmann

Combinations of neural ODEs with recurrent neural networks (RNN), like GRU-ODE-Bayes or ODE-RNN are well suited to model irregularly observed time series. While those models outperform existing discrete-time approaches, no theoretical…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-05-11 Calypso Herrera , Florian Krach , Josef Teichmann

We introduce a novel grid-independent model for learning partial differential equations (PDEs) from noisy and partial observations on irregular spatiotemporal grids. We propose a space-time continuous latent neural PDE model with an…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-27 Valerii Iakovlev , Markus Heinonen , Harri Lähdesmäki

Neural Jump ODEs model the conditional expectation between observations by neural ODEs and jump at arrival of new observations. They have demonstrated effectiveness for fully data-driven online forecasting in settings with irregular and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-19 Jakob Heiss , Florian Krach , Thorsten Schmidt , Félix B. Tambe-Ndonfack

The neural Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) model has shown success in learning complex continuous-time processes from observations on discrete time stamps. In this work, we consider the modeling and forecasting of time series data that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-06-05 Yixuan Tan , Liyan Xie , Xiuyuan Cheng

Measurement noise is an integral part while collecting data of a physical process. Thus, noise removal is necessary to draw conclusions from these data, and it often becomes essential to construct dynamical models using these data. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-05-20 Pawan Goyal , Peter Benner

Many time series are effectively generated by a combination of deterministic continuous flows along with discrete jumps sparked by stochastic events. However, we usually do not have the equation of motion describing the flows, or how they…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-01-09 Junteng Jia , Austin R. Benson

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (N-ODEs) are a powerful building block for learning systems, which extend residual networks to a continuous-time dynamical system. We propose a Bayesian version of N-ODEs that enables well-calibrated…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-02-19 Andreas Look , Melih Kandemir

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) have proven to be a powerful modeling tool for approximating (interpolation) and forecasting (extrapolation) irregularly sampled time series data. However, their performance degrades…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-04-29 Hammad A. Ayyubi , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Neural differential equations predict the derivative of a stochastic process. This allows irregular forecasting with arbitrary time-steps. However, the expressive temporal flexibility often comes with a high sensitivity to noise. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Stav Belogolovsky , Ido Greenberg , Danny Eitan , Shie Mannor

We consider the problem of designing almost optimal predictors for dynamical systems from a finite sequence of noisy observations and incomplete knowledge of the dynamics and the noise. We first discuss the properties of the optimal (Bayes)…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2007-07-30 Marian Anghel , Ingo Steinwart

Ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used to describe the time evolution of natural phenomena across various scientific fields. Estimating the parameters of these systems from data is a challenging task, particularly when…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2025-01-23 S. Syafiie , Aries Subiantoro , Vivi Andasari , Fernando Tadeo

The reconstruction and inference of stochastic dynamical systems from data is a fundamental task in inverse problems and statistical learning. While surrogate modeling advances computational methods to approximate these dynamics, standard…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-04-14 Nicole Tianjiao Yang

We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-19 Ricky T. Q. Chen , Brandon Amos , Maximilian Nickel

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) use a neural network to model the instantaneous rate of change in the state of a system. However, despite their apparent suitability for dynamics-governed time-series, NODEs present a few…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-18 Alexander Norcliffe , Cristian Bodnar , Ben Day , Jacob Moss , Pietro Liò

Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (ODEs) are elegant reinterpretations of deep networks where continuous time can replace the discrete notion of depth, ODE solvers perform forward propagation, and the adjoint method enables efficient,…

Using neural networks to solve partial differential equations (PDEs) is gaining popularity as an alternative approach in the scientific computing community. Neural networks can integrate different types of information into the loss…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-05-07 Zhiwei Wang , Lulu Zhang , Zhongwang Zhang , Zhi-Qin John Xu

By interpreting the forward dynamics of the latent representation of neural networks as an ordinary differential equation, Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (Neural ODE) emerged as an effective framework for modeling a system dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-19 Daehoon Gwak , Gyuhyeon Sim , Michael Poli , Stefano Massaroli , Jaegul Choo , Edward Choi

The existing Neural ODE formulation relies on an explicit knowledge of the termination time. We extend Neural ODEs to implicitly defined termination criteria modeled by neural event functions, which can be chained together and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-28 Ricky T. Q. Chen , Brandon Amos , Maximilian Nickel
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