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A popular and flexible time series model for counts is the generalized integer autoregressive process of order $p$, GINAR($p$). These Markov processes are defined using thinning operators evaluated on past values of the process along with a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-02-06 Pashmeen Kaur , Peter F. Craigmile

INteger Auto-Regressive (INAR) processes are usually defined by specifying the innovations and the operator, which often leads to difficulties in deriving marginal properties of the process. In many practical situations, a major modeling…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-04-21 Matheus B. Guerrero , Wagner Barreto-Souza , Hernando Ombao

Most of the stationary first-order autoregressive integer-valued (INAR(1)) models were developed for a given thinning operator using either the forward approach or the backward approach. In the forward approach the marginal distribution of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-03-22 Emad-Eldin AA Aly , Nadjib Bouzar

An extension of the RINAR(1) process for modelling discrete-time dependent counting processes is considered. The model RINAR(p) investigated here is a direct and natural extension of the real AR(p) model. Compared to classical INAR(p)…

Methodology · Statistics 2009-02-11 M. Kachour

For modeling the serial dependence in time series of counts, various approaches have been proposed in the literature. In particular, models based on a recursive, autoregressive-type structure such as the well-known integer-valued…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-16 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch

Among the various models designed for dependent count data, integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) processes enjoy great popularity. Typically, statistical inference for INAR models uses asymptotic theory that relies on rather stringent…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-10-16 Maxime Faymonville , Carsten Jentsch , Christian H. Weiß

In this paper, we introduce the first-order integer-valued autoregressive (INAR(1)) model, with Poisson-Lindley innovations based on power series thinning operator. Some mathematical features of this process are given and estimating the…

Applications · Statistics 2018-10-08 Eisa Mahmoudi , Ameneh Rostami , Rasool Roozegar

A common approach to analyze count time series is to fit models based on random sum operators. As an alternative, this paper introduces time series models based on a random multiplication operator, which is simply the multiplication of a…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-12-19 Abdelhakim Aknouche , Sonia Gouveia , Manuel Scotto

This paper investigates the cumulative Integer-Valued Autoregressive model of infinite order, denoted as INAR($\infty$), a class of processes crucial for modeling count time series and equivalent to discrete-time Hawkes processes. We…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-12 Yingli Wang , Xiaohong Duan , Ping He

Existing integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) models for count random fields suffer from difficulties in characterizing the stationary marginal distribution and in computing conditional probabilities (as required for likelihood inference).…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-15 Christian H. Weiß , Angelika Silbernagel

The thinning-based integer-valued autoregressive moving-average (INARMA) models are popular for count time series. Recently, types of INARMA models have also been developed for count random fields, i.e., for spatial count data located on a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-27 Angelika Silbernagel , Christian H. Weiß

A new integer--valued autoregressive process (INAR) with Generalised Lagrangian Katz (GLK) innovations is defined. This process family provides a flexible modelling framework for count data, allowing for under and over--dispersion,…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-18 Ovielt Baltodano Lopez , Federico Bassetti , Giulia Carallo , Roberto Casarin

In the fields of sociology and economics, the modeling of matrix-variate integervalued time series is urgent. However, no prior studies have addressed the modeling of such data. To address this topic, this paper proposes a novel…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Nuo Xu , Kai Yang , Fukang Zhu

We introduce a two-parameter expectation thinning operator based on a linear fractional probability generating function. The operator is then used to define a first-order integer-valued autoregressive \inar1 process. Distributional…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-09 Emad-Eldin A. A. Aly , Nadjib Bouzar

Time series of counts are frequently analyzed using generalized integer-valued autoregressive models with conditional heteroskedasticity (INGARCH). These models employ response functions to map a vector of past observations and past…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-04 Malte Jahn

INAR (integer-valued autoregressive) and INGARCH (integer-valued GARCH) models are among the most commonly employed approaches for count time series modelling, but have been studied in largely distinct strands of literature. In this paper,…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-05 Johannes Bracher , Barbora Sobolová

This paper discusses the solution of nonlinear integral equations with noisy integral kernels as they appear in nonparametric instrumental regression. We propose a regularized Newton-type iteration and establish convergence and convergence…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-04-01 Fabian Dunker , Jean-Pierre Florens , Thorsten Hohage , Jan Johannes , Enno Mammen

This article introduces a general class of heavy-tailed autoregressions for modeling integer-valued time series with outliers. The proposed specification is based on a heavy-tailed mixture of negative binomial distributions that features an…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-09-09 Paolo Gorgi

This paper develops a method for estimating parameters of a vector autoregression (VAR) observed in white noise. The estimation method assumes the noise variance matrix is known and does not require any iterative process. This study…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-03-01 Alexandre G. Patriota , Joao R. Sato , Betsabe G. Blas

Real count data time series often show the phenomenon of the underdispersion and overdispersion. In this paper, we develop two extensions of the first-order integer-valued autoregressive process with Poisson innovations, based on binomial…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-27 Marcelo Bourguignon , Josemar Rodrigues , Manoel Santos-Neto
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