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This paper considers nonparametric estimation and inference in first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) models with deterministically time-varying parameters. A key feature of the proposed approach is to allow for time-varying stationarity in…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-11-04 Donald W. K. Andrews , Ming Li

Periodic autoregressive (PAR) time series with finite variance is considered as one of the most common models of second-order cyclostationary processes. However, in the real applications, the signals with periodic characteristics may be…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-13 Wojciech Żuławiński , Agnieszka Wyłomańska

A time series is a sequence of observations taken sequentially in time. The autoregressive integrated moving average is a class of the model more used for times series data. However, this class of model has two critical limitations. It fits…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-14 Renato Rodrigues Silva

In Fernandez-Fontelo et al (Statis. Med. 2016, DOI 10.1002/sim.7026) hidden integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) processes are used to estimate reporting probabilities for various diseases. In this comment it is demonstrated that the…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-03-01 Johannes Bracher

High-dimensional time series are a core ingredient of the statistical modeling toolkit, for which numerous estimation methods are known.But when observations are scarce or corrupted, the learning task becomes much harder.The question is:…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-05-06 Guillaume Dalle , Yohann de Castro

A bivariate integer-valued autoregressive process of order 1 (BINAR(1)) with copula-joint innovations is studied. Different parameter estimation methods are analyzed and compared via Monte Carlo simulations with emphasis on estimation of…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-06-07 Andrius Buteikis , Remigijus Leipus

Given the scarcity of anomalies in real-world applications, the majority of literature has been focusing on modeling normality. The learned representations enable anomaly detection as the normality model is trained to capture certain key…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-05 Feng Xue , Weizhong Yan

The class of autoregressive (AR) processes is extensively used to model temporal dependence in observed time series. Such models are easily available and routinely fitted using freely available statistical software like R. A potential…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-13 Sigrunn H. Sørbye , Pedro G. Nicolau , Håvard Rue

Using a proper model to characterize a time series is crucial in making accurate predictions. In this work we use time-varying autoregressive process (TVAR) to describe non-stationary time series and model it as a mixture of multiple stable…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-17 Jie Ding , Mohammad Noshad , Vahid Tarokh

A common problem in numerous research areas, particularly in clinical trials, is to test whether the effect of an explanatory variable on an outcome variable is equivalent across different groups. In practice, these tests are frequently…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-03 Niklas Hagemann , Kathrin Möllenhoff

Hypothesis testing procedures are developed to assess linear operator constraints in function-on-scalar regression when incomplete functional responses are observed. The approach enables statistical inferences about the shape and other…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-12-06 Yeonjoo Park , Kyunghee Han , Douglas G. Simpson

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

Applications · Statistics 2013-10-21 Richard A. Davis , Pengfei Zang , Tian Zheng

Independent or i.i.d. innovations is an essential assumption in the literature for analyzing a vector time series. However, this assumption is either too restrictive for a real-life time series to satisfy or is hard to verify through a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-10-12 Yunyi Zhang

Negative binomial regression is commonly employed to analyze overdispersed count data. With small to moderate sample sizes, the maximum likelihood estimator of the dispersion parameter may be subject to a significant bias, that in turn…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-11-06 Euloge Clovis Kenne Pagui , Alessandra Salvan , Nicola Sartori

Covariate-adaptive randomization (CAR) procedures are frequently used in comparative studies to increase the covariate balance across treatment groups. However, because randomization inevitably uses the covariate information when forming…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-07-08 Wei Ma , Yichen Qin , Yang Li , Feifang Hu

Predictive linear and nonlinear models based on kernel machines or deep neural networks have been used to discover dependencies among time series. This paper proposes an efficient nonlinear modeling approach for multiple time series, with a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-02 Kevin Roy , Luis Miguel Lopez-Ramos , Baltasar Beferull-Lozano

This paper considers a class of nonparametric autoregressive models with nonstationarity. We propose a nonparametric kernel test for the conditional mean and then establish an asymptotic distribution of the proposed test. Both the setting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2009-11-20 Jiti Gao , Maxwell King , Zudi Lu , Dag Tjøstheim

Efficient machine translation models are commercially important as they can increase inference speeds, and reduce costs and carbon emissions. Recently, there has been much interest in non-autoregressive (NAR) models, which promise faster…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-05-05 Jindřich Helcl , Barry Haddow , Alexandra Birch

Count endpoints are common in clinical trials, particularly for recurrent events such as hypoglycemia. When interest centers on comparing overall event rates between treatment groups, negative binomial (NB) regression is widely used because…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-27 Jiren Sun , Linda Amoafo , Yongming Qu

Modeling responses on the nodes of a large-scale network is an important task that arises commonly in practice. This paper proposes a community network vector autoregressive (CNAR) model, which utilizes the network structure to characterize…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-07-13 Elynn Y. Chen , Jianqing Fan , Xuening Zhu