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Related papers: Feasible Conditional Belief Distributions

200 papers

Success-driven social learning, in which individuals preferentially adopt the ideas and methods that appear most successful, is a foundational principle of collective behavior across systems ranging from ant colonies to scientific…

Physics and Society · Physics 2026-05-01 Avery W. Louis , Marina Dubova

An analyst observes an agent take a sequence of actions. The analyst does not have access to the agent's information and ponders whether the observed actions could be justified through a rational Bayesian model with a known utility…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-04-08 Henrique de Oliveira , Rohit Lamba

We consider two-alternative elections where voters' preferences depend on a state variable that is not directly observable. Each voter receives a private signal that is correlated to the state variable. Voters may be "contingent" with…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2022-06-15 Grant Schoenebeck , Biaoshuai Tao

Belief systems are often treated as globally consistent sets of propositions or as scalar-valued probability distributions. Such representations tend to obscure the internal structure of belief, conflate external credibility with internal…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-06 Saleh Nikooroo

We present the notion of explainability for decision-making processes in a pedagogically structured autonomous environment. Multi-agent systems that are structured pedagogically consist of pedagogical teachers and learners that operate in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-10-24 Minal Suresh Patil

In this study, I present a theoretical social learning model to investigate how confirmation bias affects opinions when agents exchange information over a social network. Hence, besides exchanging opinions with friends, agents observe a…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-02-27 Marcos R. Fernandes

The idea of fully accepting statements when the evidence has rendered them probable enough faces a number of difficulties. We leave the interpretation of probability largely open, but attempt to suggest a contextual approach to full belief.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-08 Henry E. Kyburg

An analyst observes the frequency with which an agent takes actions, but not the frequency with which she takes actions conditional on a payoff relevant state. In this setting, we ask when the analyst can rationalize the agent's choices as…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2023-07-27 Laura Doval , Ran Eilat

Multi-unit organizations such as retail chains are interested in the diffusion of best practices throughout all divisions. However, the strict guidelines or incentive schemes may not always be effective in promoting the replication of a…

General Economics · Economics 2022-06-09 Ravshanbek Khodzhimatov , Stephan Leitner , Friederike Wall

From marketing to politics, exploitation of incomplete information through selective communication of arguments is ubiquitous. In this work, we focus on development of an argumentation-theoretic model for manipulable multi-agent…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-09-17 Ryuta Arisaka , Makoto Hagiwara , Takayuki Ito

In physics we often use very simple models to describe systems with many degrees of freedom, but it is not clear why or how this success can be transferred to the more complex biological context. We consider models for the joint…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-12-06 Luisa Ramirez , William Bialek , Stephanie E. Palmer , David J. Schwab

I study whether and which expert incentives can be provided at what cost when the states of the world become non-contractible, but there is some noisy observation about the states that can be contracted upon. A principal hires an agent to…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2025-11-12 Zizhe Xia

We focus on the scenario in which an agent can exploit his information advantage to manipulate the outcome of an election. In particular, we study district-based elections with two candidates, in which the winner of the election is the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Matteo Castiglioni , Nicola Gatti

We consider a sender-receiver game in which the receiver's action is binary and the sender's preferences are state-independent. The state is multidimensional. The receiver can select one dimension of the state to check (i.e., observe)…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-12 Ian Ball , Xin Gao

We study a communication game between an informed sender and an uninformed receiver with repeated interactions and voluntary transfers. Transfers motivate the receiver's decision-making and signal the sender's information. Although full…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2020-12-11 Anton Kolotilin , Hongyi Li

Despite the obvious advantage of simple life forms capable of fast replication, different levels of cognitive complexity have been achieved by living systems in terms of their potential to cope with environmental uncertainty. Against the…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2017-10-18 Luís F Seoane , Ricard Solé

We study online Bayesian persuasion problems in which an informed sender repeatedly faces a receiver with the goal of influencing their behavior through the provision of payoff-relevant information. Previous works assume that the sender has…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-11-12 Francesco Bacchiocchi , Matteo Bollini , Matteo Castiglioni , Alberto Marchesi , Nicola Gatti

This paper builds Wasserstein ambiguity sets for the unknown probability distribution of dynamic random variables leveraging noisy partial-state observations. The constructed ambiguity sets contain the true distribution of the data with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-21 Dimitris Boskos , Jorge Cortés , Sonia Martínez

Formal verification of intelligent agents is often computationally infeasible due to state-space explosion. We present a tool for reducing the impact of the explosion by means of state abstraction that is (a) easy to use and understand by…

Multiagent Systems · Computer Science 2023-10-19 Wojciech Jamroga , Yan Kim

Data collecting agents in large networks, such as the electric power system, need to share information (measurements) for estimating the system state in a distributed manner. However, privacy concerns may limit or prevent this exchange…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2015-10-28 E. Veronica Belmega , Lalitha Sankar , H. Vincent Poor