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A noise source model, consisting of a pulse sequence at random times with memory, is presented. By varying the memory we can obtain variable randomness of the stochastic process. The delay time between pulses, i. e. the noise memory,…
Beliefs inform the behavior of forward-thinking agents in complex environments. Recently, sequential Bayesian inference has emerged as a mechanism to study belief formation among agents adapting to dynamical conditions. However, we lack…
This paper is a survey of recent results on the adaptive robust non parametric methods for the continuous time regression model with the semi - martingale noises with jumps. The noises are modeled by the L\'evy processes, the Ornstein --…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
A method to describe unresolved processes in meteorological models by physically based stochastic processes (SP) is proposed by the example of an energy budget model (EBM). Contrary to the common approach using additive white noise, a…
Stochastic approximation (SA) is a method for finding the root of an operator perturbed by noise. There is a rich literature establishing the asymptotic normality of rescaled SA iterates under fairly mild conditions. However, these…
A stochastic SIR epidemic model taking into account the heterogeneity of the spatial environment is constructed. The deterministic model is given by a partial differential equation and the stochastic one by a space-time jump Markov process.…
Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints…
Modelling the transmission dynamics of an infectious disease is a complex task. Not only it is difficult to accurately model the inherent non-stationarity and heterogeneity of transmission, but it is nearly impossible to describe,…
This paper focuses on and analyzes realistic SIR models that take stochasticity into account. The proposed systems are applicable to most incidence rates that are used in the literature including the bilinear incidence rate, the…
Oral Glucose Tolerance Test (OGTT) is one of many way to produce data in the study of the diabetes dynamic. In a recent paper [1.]:\textit{ Estimating insulin sensitivity and $ \beta $-cell function from the oral glucose tolerance test:…
A steadily increasing body of evidence suggests that the brain performs probabilistic inference to interpret and respond to sensory input and that trial-to-trial variability in neural activity plays an important role. The neural sampling…
We consider the stochastic volatility model $dS_t = \sigma_t S_t dW_t,d\sigma_t = \omega \sigma_t dZ_t$, with $(W_t,Z_t)$ uncorrelated standard Brownian motions. This is a special case of the Hull-White and the $\beta=1$ (log-normal) SABR…
We consider a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process able to describe the dynamics of infected people in a susceptible-infectious epidemic model in which the transmission intensity function is time-dependent. Such a model is well suited to…
In real-world problems, environmental noise is often idealized as Gaussian white noise, despite potential temporal dependencies. The Linear Inverse Model (LIM) is a class of data-driven methods that extract dynamic and stochastic…
In this paper we propose a novel SEIR stochastic epidemic model. A distinguishing feature of this new model is that it allows us to consider a set up under general latency and infectious period distributions. To some extent, queuing systems…
The ordinary contact process is used to model the spread of a disease in a population. In this model, each infected individual waits an exponentially distributed time with parameter 1 before becoming healthy. In this paper, we introduce and…
We discuss a model of a system of interacting populations for the case when: (i) the growth rates and the coefficients of interaction among the populations depend on the populations densities: and (ii) the environment influences the growth…
We establish a diffusion approximation for a class of multi-agent controlled queueing systems, demonstrating their convergence to a system of interacting reflected Ornstein--Uhlenbeck (OU) processes. The limiting process captures essential…