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We propose a new physically-based ``multifractal stress activation'' model of earthquake interaction and triggering based on two simple ingredients: (i) a seismic rupture results from activated processes giving an exponential dependence on…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 G. Ouillon , D. Sornette

Fundamentally related to the UV divergence problem in Physics, conventional wisdom in seismology is that the smallest earthquakes, which are numerous and often go undetected, dominate the triggering of major earthquakes, making the…

Geophysics · Physics 2021-05-12 Shyam Nandan , Guy Ouillon , Didier Sornette

Earthquakes are commonly estimated using physical seismic stations, however, due to the installation requirements and costs of these stations, global coverage quickly becomes impractical. An efficient and lower-cost alternative is to…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-05-08 Daniele Rege Cambrin , Isaac Corley , Paolo Garza , Peyman Najafirad

Earthquakes are complex physical processes driven by the stick-slip motion of a sliding fault. After the main quake, a series of aftershocks typically follows. These are loosely defined as events that follow a given event and occur within…

Geophysics · Physics 2022-12-12 Pinaki Kumar , Roberto Benzi , Jeannot Trampert , Federico Toschi

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Geophysics · Physics 2010-03-25 T. R. Krishna Mohan P. G. , Revathi

In models of triggered seismicity and in their inversion with empirical data, the detection threshold m_d is commonly equated to the magnitude m_0 of the smallest triggering earthquake. This unjustified assumption neglects the possibility…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 D. Sornette , M. J. Werner

The physics of earthquake triggering together with simple assumptions of self-similarity impose the existence of a minimum magnitude m0 below which earthquakes do not trigger other earthquakes. Noting that the magnitude md of completeness…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-05-23 D. Sornette , M. J. Werner

Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify `chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as…

Applications · Statistics 2022-09-21 Brad Luen , Philip B. Stark

It is shown that considering a fixed increment of a given magnitude at a fault is equivalent to factoring the mechanical moment at the fault as done in structural engineering with the applied loads, by the most currently used structural…

Geophysics · Physics 2019-10-15 Paolo Rugarli , Franco Vaccari , Giuliano Panza

The observation of foreshocks preceding large earthquakes and the suggestion that foreshocks have specific properties that may be used to distinguish them from other earthquakes have raised the hope that large earthquakes may be…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-06-26 Agnes Helmstetter , Didier Sornette

Earthquakes vary in size over many orders of magnitude, yet the scaling of the earthquake energy budget remains enigmatic. We propose that fundamentally different "small-slip" and "large-slip" fracture processes govern earthquakes. We…

We quantify the correlation between earthquakes and use the same to distinguish between relevant causally connected earthquakes. Our correlation metric is a variation on the one introduced by Baiesi and Paczuski (2004). A network of…

Geophysics · Physics 2015-05-18 T. R. Krishna Mohan , P. G. Revathi

Without a model, it is impossible for a geophysicist to study the possibility of forecasting earth quakes. We will define a quantity, the event-degree, in the paper. This quantity plays an important role in the model of quakes forecasting.…

Geophysics · Physics 2008-07-16 Yeong-Shyeong Tsai

I study a recently proposed statistical model of earthquake dynamics that incorporates aging as a fundamental ingredient. The model is known to generate earthquake sequences that quantitatively reproduce the spatial and temporal clustering…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-19 E. A. Jagla

The empirical Bath's law is derived from the magnitude-difference statistical distribution of earthquake pairs. The pair distribution related to earthquake correlations is presented. The single-event distribution of dynamically correlated…

Geophysics · Physics 2020-06-16 Bogdan Felix Apostol

The number of earthquakes as a function of magnitude decays as a power law. This trend is usually justified using spring-block models, where slips with the appropriate global statistics have been numerically observed. However, prominent…

Disordered Systems and Neural Networks · Physics 2010-05-24 E. A. Jagla , A. B. Kolton

In recent years, considerable attention has been paid to research and development methods able to assess the seismic energy propagation on the territory. The seismic energy propagation is strongly related to the complexity of the source and…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-04-11 Giulio Zuccaro , Daniela De Gregorio , Magdalini Titirla , Mariano Modano , Luciano Rosati

A measure of the correlation between two earthquakes is used to link events to their aftershocks, generating a growing network structure. In this framework one can quantify whether an aftershock is close or far, from main shocks of all…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-31 Marco Baiesi

This paper is devoted to assess the presence of some regularities in the magnitudes of the earthquakes in Italy between January $24^{th}$, 2016 and January $24^{th}$, 2017, and to propose an earthquakes cost indicator. The considered data…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-09-13 Valerio Ficcadenti , Roy Cerqueti

We estimate the relative importance of small and large earthquakes for static stress changes and for earthquake triggering, assuming that earthquakes are triggered by static stress changes and that earthquakes are located on a fractal…

Geophysics · Physics 2007-09-06 A. Helmstetter , Y. Y. Kagan , D. D. Jackson