Related papers: Modelling coevolutionary dynamics in heterogeneous…
Rapidly mutating pathogens may be able to persist in the population and reach an endemic equilibrium by escaping hosts' acquired immunity. For such diseases, multiple biological, environmental and population-level mechanisms determine the…
Coalescent models are used to study the transmission dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens from molecular sequence data obtained from infected individuals. However coalescent parameters, such as effective population size, offer limited…
The propagation of infectious diseases and its impact on individuals play a major role in disease dynamics, and it is important to incorporate population heterogeneity into efforts to study diseases. As a simplistic but illustrative…
We introduce and analyze coupled, multi-strain epidemic models designed to simulate the emergence and dissemination of mutant (e.g. drug-resistant) pathogen strains. In particular, we investigate the mathematical and biological properties…
We study the spread of stochastic SIR (Susceptible $\to$ Infectious $\to$ Recovered) epidemics in two types of structured populations, both consisting of schools and households. In each of the types, every individual is part of one school…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
Over the past two decades there has been a number of global outbreaks of viral diseases. This has accelerated the efforts to model and forecast the disease spreading, in order to find ways to confine the spreading regionally and between…
A key problem in modelling the evolution dynamics of infectious diseases is the mathematical representation of the mechanism of transmission of the contagion. Models with a finite number of subpopulations can be described via systems of…
The impact of spatial structure on the spread of an epidemic is an important issue in the propagation of infectious diseases. Recent studies, both deterministic and stochastic, have made it possible to understand the importance of the…
Infectious diseases outbreaks are often characterized by a spatial component induced by hosts' distribution, mobility, and interactions. Spatial models that incorporate hosts' movements are being used to describe these processes, to…
Here we propose and implement a generalized mathematical model to find the time evolution of population in infectious diseases and apply the model to study the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Our model at the core is a non-local generalization of…
We propose a compartmental model for epidemiology wherein the population is split into groups with either comply or refuse to comply with protocols designed to slow the spread of a disease. Parallel to the disease spread, we assume that…
Whole genome sequencing of pathogens from multiple hosts in an epidemic offers the potential to investigate who infected whom with unparalleled resolution, potentially yielding important insights into disease dynamics and the impact of…
Two stochastic models are proposed to describe the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first model the population is partitioned into four compartments: susceptible $S$, infected $I$, removed $R$ and dead people $D$. In order to have…
In this paper, we propose a realistic mathematical model taking into account the mutual interference among the interacting populations. This model attempts to describe the control (vaccination) function as a function of the number of…
Our study is based on an epidemiological compartmental model, the SIRS model. In the SIRS model, each individual is in one of the states susceptible (S), infected(I) or recovered (R), depending on its state of health. In compartment R, an…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
Human pathogens transmitted through environmental pathways are subject to stress and pressures outside of the host. These pressures may cause pathogen pathovars to diverge in their environmental persistence and their infectivity on an…
We show how one can trace in a systematic way the coarse-grained solutions of individual-based stochastic epidemic models evolving on heterogeneous complex networks with respect to their topological characteristics. In particular, we have…
These notes describe stochastic epidemics in a homogenous community. Our main concern is stochastic compartmental models (i.e. models where each individual belongs to a compartment, which stands for its status regarding the epidemic under…