Related papers: Statistical electricity price forecasting: A struc…
The South Australia region of the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM) displays some of the highest levels of price volatility observed in modern electricity markets. This paper outlines an approach to probabilistic forecasting…
We examine the problem of modeling and forecasting European Day-Ahead and Month-Ahead natural gas prices. For this, we propose two distinct probabilistic models that can be utilized in risk- and portfolio management. We use daily pricing…
We use three ensemble members of the EURO-CORDEX project and their data on surface wind speeds, solar irradiation as well as water runoff with a spatial resolution of 12 km and a temporal resolution of 3 hours under representative…
We present a new model for the electricity spot price dynamics, which is able to capture seasonality, low-frequency dynamics and the extreme spikes in the market. Instead of the usual purely deterministic trend we introduce a non-stationary…
In electricity markets, locational marginal price (LMP) forecasting is particularly important for market participants in making reasonable bidding strategies, managing potential trading risks, and supporting efficient system planning and…
Energy system models require a large amount of technical and economic data, the quality of which significantly influences the reliability of the results. Some of the variables on the important data source ENTSO-E transparency platform, such…
The increase of renewables in the grid and the volatility of the load create uncertainties in the day-ahead prices of electricity markets. Adaptive robust optimization (ARO) and stochastic optimization have been used to make commitment and…
Accurate price predictions are essential for market participants in order to optimize their operational schedules and bidding strategies, especially in the current context where electricity prices become more volatile and less predictable…
The implementation of electricity markets based on locational marginal pricing in a multi-settlement process has allowed wholesale competition, with pricing mechanisms that incentivize the optimal allocation of generation, transmission, and…
In contemporary power systems, energy consumption prediction plays a crucial role in maintaining grid stability and resource allocation enabling power companies to minimize energy waste and avoid overloading the grid. While there are…
Climate and energy policy targets of the European Commission aim to make Europe the first climate-neutral continent by 2050. For low-carbon and net-neutral energy systems primarily based on variable renewable power generation, issues…
The United States' power market is featured by the lack of judicial power at the federal level. The market thus provides a unique testing environment for the market organization structure. At the same time, the econometric modeling and…
Calibration sample selection and forecast combination are two simple yet powerful tools used in forecasting. They can be combined with a variety of models to significantly improve prediction accuracy, at the same time offering easy…
Prediction of stock prices plays a significant role in aiding the decision-making of investors. Considering its importance, a growing literature has emerged trying to forecast stock prices with improved accuracy. In this study, we introduce…
Currently the UK Electric market is guided by load (demand) forecasts published every thirty minutes by the regulator. A key factor in predicting demand is weather conditions, with forecasts published every hour. We present HYENA: a hybrid…
Structural transformation, the shift from agrarian economies to more diversified industrial and service-based systems, is a key driver of economic development. However, in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), data scarcity and…
Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…
In an electric power system, demand fluctuations may result in significant ancillary cost to suppliers. Furthermore, in the near future, deep penetration of volatile renewable electricity generation is expected to exacerbate the variability…
Middle-term horizon (months to a year) power consumption prediction is a main challenge in the energy sector, in particular when probabilistic forecasting is considered. We propose a new modelling approach that incorporates trend,…
This working paper presents a comprehensive study on the development and analysis of various electricity market models, focusing on continuous, discrete, and fractional-order approaches. The continuous model captures the ongoing…