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By the end of 2021, the renewable energy share of the global electricity capacity reached 38.3% and the new installations are dominated by wind and solar energy, showing global increases of 12.7% and 18.5%, respectively. However, both wind…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-18 Ágnes Baran , Sándor Baran

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-17 Jan Niklas Lettner , Hadeer El Ashhab , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Electrified heating systems with thermal storage, such as electric boilers and heat pumps, represent a major source of demand-side flexibility. Under current electricity market designs, balance responsible parties (BRPs) operating such…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-02-20 Alessandro Quattrociocchi , Manisha Talukdar , Pere Izquierdo Gómez , Tomislav Dragicevic

Reliable demand forecasts are critical for the effective supply chain management. Several endogenous and exogenous variables can influence the dynamics of demand, and hence a single statistical model that only consists of historical sales…

Applications · Statistics 2019-09-09 Mahdi Abolghasemi , Ali Eshragh , Jason Hurley , Behnam Fahimnia

Probabilistic intraday electricity price forecasting is becoming increasingly important for short-term power-system operation. With increasing renewable generation, demand-side flexibility, and storage assets, market participants need to…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-05-12 Runyao Yu , Yuchen Tao , Fabian Leimgruber , Tara Esterl , Jochen Stiasny , Derek W. Bunn , Qingsong Wen , Hongye Guo , Jochen L. Cremer

In the context of smart grids and load balancing, daily peak load forecasting has become a critical activity for stakeholders of the energy industry. An understanding of peak magnitude and timing is paramount for the implementation of smart…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-10 Yvenn Amara-Ouali , Matteo Fasiolo , Yannig Goude , Hui Yan

Optimizing the total cost of power systems is a common tool for network operation and planning. Besides valuable information about how to run and possibly expand a power system, the optimization provides an optimal Locational Marginal Price…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-03-18 Fabian Hofmann , Markus Schlott

Inspired from recent insights into the common ground of machine learning, optimization and decision-making, this paper proposes an easy-to-implement, but effective procedure to enhance both the quality of renewable energy forecasts and the…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-17 Miguel Á. Muñoz , Juan M. Morales , Salvador Pineda

Virtual bidding plays an important role in two-settlement electric power markets, as it can reduce discrepancies between day-ahead and real-time markets. Renewable energy penetration increases volatility in electricity prices, making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-03 Xuesong Wang , Sharaf K. Magableh , Oraib Dawaghreh , Caisheng Wang , Jiaxuan Gong , Zhongyang Zhao , Michael H. Liao

Data analytics and machine learning techniques are being rapidly adopted into the power system, including power system control as well as electricity market design. In this paper, from an adversarial machine learning point of view, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-19 Jingshi Cui , Haoxiang Wang , Chenye Wu , Yang Yu

In this paper we investigate predictability of electricity prices in the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Ontario, as well as in the US Mid-C market. Using scale-dependent detrended fluctuation analysis, spectral analysis, and the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-06-01 Olga Y. Uritskaya , Vadim M. Uritsky

Due to the limited predictability of wind power and other stochastic generation, trading this energy in competitive electricity markets is challenging. This paper derives revenue-maximising and risk-constrained strategies for stochastic…

General Finance · Quantitative Finance 2018-05-31 Jethro Browell

Accurate forecasting of electric vehicle (EV) charging demand is critical for grid management and infrastructure planning. Yet the field continues to rely on legacy benchmarks; such as the Palo Alto (2020) dataset; that fail to reflect the…

Applications · Statistics 2026-04-23 Kaoutar Bouaachra , Yvenn Amara-Ouali , Yannig Goude , Raphaël Lachieze-Rey

The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2008-12-02 Rafal Weron

In wholesale electricity markets, prices fluctuate widely from hour to hour and electricity generators price-hedge their output using longer-term contracts, such as monthly base futures. Consequently, the incentives they face to drive up…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-05 Alice Lixuan Xu , Jorge Sánchez Canales , Chiara Fusar Bassini , Lynn H. Kaack , Lion Hirth

Information about the spatio-temporal pattern of electricity energy carried by EVs, instead of EVs themselves, is crucial for EVs to establish more effective and intelligent interactions with the smart grid. In this paper, we propose a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-02-15 Qinglong Wang

Accurate energy price forecasting is crucial for participants in day-ahead energy markets, as it significantly influences their decision-making processes. While machine learning-based approaches have shown promise in enhancing these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-17 Abhiroop Bhattacharya , Nandinee Haq

We propose a dynamical model of price formation on a spatial market where sellers and buyers are placed on the nodes of a graph, and the distribution of the buyers depends on the positions and prices of the sellers. We find that, depending…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-11-15 Andrea Civilini , Vito Latora

Electricity market operators worldwide use mixed-integer linear programming to solve the allocation problem in wholesale electricity markets. Prices are typically determined based on the duals of relaxed versions of this optimization…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-13 Mete Şeref Ahunbay , Martin Bichler , Teodora Dobos , Johannes Knörr

The changes in electricity markets expose RES producers and electricity traders to various risks, among which the price and the volume risk play a very important role. In this research, a portfolio building strategies are presented, which…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-05-03 Katarzyna Maciejowska
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