Related papers: Statistical electricity price forecasting: A struc…
Electricity price forecasting (EPF) is a branch of forecasting on the interface of electrical engineering, statistics, computer science, and finance, which focuses on predicting prices in wholesale electricity markets for a whole spectrum…
With the rapid development of electricity markets, price volatility has significantly increased, making accurate forecasting crucial for power system operations and market decisions. Traditional linear models cannot capture the complex…
The study of Day-Ahead prices in the electricity market is one of the most popular problems in time series forecasting. Previous research has focused on employing increasingly complex learning algorithms to capture the sophisticated…
Electricity is bought and sold in wholesale markets at prices that fluctuate significantly. Short-term forecasting of electricity prices is an important endeavor because it helps electric utilities control risk and because it influences…
Recent studies concerning the point electricity price forecasting have shown evidence that the hourly German Intraday Continuous Market is weak-form efficient. Therefore, we take a novel, advanced approach to the problem. A probabilistic…
The growing importance of intraday electricity trading in Europe calls for improved price forecasting and tailored decision-support tools. In this paper, we propose a novel generative neural network model to generate probabilistic path…
We propose a multivariate elastic net regression forecast model for German quarter-hourly electricity spot markets. While the literature is diverse on day-ahead prediction approaches, both the intraday continuous and intraday call-auction…
Accurate forecasts of electricity prices are crucial for the management of electric power systems and the development of smart applications. European electricity prices have risen substantially and became highly volatile after the Russian…
Electricity price forecasting in Europe presents unique challenges due to increasing renewable generation variability, market integration, and the continent's physically interconnected power system. While recent advances in foundation…
Accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasting is essential for residential welfare, yet current methods often fall short in forecast accuracy. We observe that commonly used time series models struggle to utilize the prior correlation…
We conduct an extensive empirical study on short-term electricity price forecasting (EPF) to address the long-standing question if the optimal model structure for EPF is univariate or multivariate. We provide evidence that despite a minor…
This paper undertakes a comprehensive investigation of electricity price forecasting methods, focused on the Irish Integrated Single Electricity Market, particularly on changes during recent periods of high volatility. The primary objective…
During the last years, European intraday power markets have gained importance for balancing forecast errors due to the rising volumes of intermittent renewable generation. However, compared to day-ahead markets, the drivers for the intraday…
Electricity is traded on various markets with different time horizons and regulations. Short-term intraday trading becomes increasingly important due to the higher penetration of renewables. In Germany, the intraday electricity price…
Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…
Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…
Purpose: Trading on electricity markets occurs such that the price settlement takes place before delivery, often day-ahead. In practice, these prices are highly volatile as they largely depend upon a range of variables such as electricity…
Accurate short-term electricity price forecasting is crucial for strategically scheduling demand and generation bids in day-ahead markets. While data-driven techniques have shown considerable prowess in achieving high forecast accuracy in…
The exponential growth of renewable energy capacity has brought much uncertainty to electricity prices and to electricity generation. To address this challenge, the energy exchanges have been developing further trading possibilities,…
Continuous intraday electricity markets play an increasingly important role in short-term trading and balancing, yet decision-making under rapidly evolving price dynamics remains challenging. This paper proposes a comprehensive framework…