Related papers: Rethinking tipping points in spatial ecosystems
Anticipating a tipping point, a transition from one stable steady state to another, is a problem of broad relevance due to the ubiquity of the phenomenon in diverse fields. The steady-state nature of the dynamics about a tipping point makes…
Spatial systems with heterogeneities are ubiquitous in nature, from precipitation, temperature and soil gradients controlling vegetation growth to morphogen gradients controlling gene expression in embryos. Such systems, generally described…
Nonlinear dynamical systems subjected to a combination of noise and time-varying forcing can exhibit sudden changes, critical transitions or tipping points where large or rapid dynamic effects arise from changes in a parameter that are…
Large responses of ecosystems to small changes in the conditions--regime shifts--are of great interest and importance. In spatially extended ecosystems, these shifts may be local or global. Using empirical data and mathematical modeling, we…
Promoting and increasing energy efficiency is a promising method of reducing CO2 emissions and avoiding the potentially devastating effects of climate change. The question is: How do we induce a cultural or behavioural change whereby people…
Tipping points (TPs) in the Earth system have been studied with growing interest and concern in recent years due to the potential risk of anthropogenic forcing causing abrupt, and possibly irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…
Familiarity with a simulation platform can seduce modellers into accepting untested assumptions for convenience of implementation. These assumptions may have consequences greater than commonly suspected, and it is important that modellers…
Mutualisms are key for structuring ecological communities, but they are sensitive to environmental change and fluctuations in population size. Consequently, how mutualisms achieve stability remains an open question in ecological theory.…
Tipping points (TP) are often described as low-dimensional bifurcations, and are associated with early-warning signals (EWS) due to critical slowing down (CSD). CSD is an increase in amplitude and correlation of noise-induced fluctuations…
Many complex dynamical systems in the real world, including ecological, climate, financial, and power-grid systems, often show critical transitions, or tipping points, in which the system's dynamics suddenly transit into a qualitatively…
From infiltration of water into the soil during rainstorms to seasonal plant growth and death, the ecohydrological processes that are thought to be relevant to the formation of banded vegetation patterns in drylands occur across multiple…
Various subsystems of the Earth system may undergo critical transitions by passing a so-called tipping point, under sustained changes to forcing. For example, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is of particular…
Rate-induced tipping (R-tipping) occurs when a ramp parameter changes rapidly enough to cause the system to tip between co-existing, attracting states, while noise-induced tipping (N-tipping) occurs when there are random transitions between…
Conventional wisdom suggests that environmental noise drives populations toward extinction. In contrast, we report a paradoxical phenomenon in which stochasticity reverses a deterministic tipping point, thereby preventing collapse. Using a…
Ecological systems are complex dynamical systems. Modelling efforts on ecosystems' dynamical stability have revealed that population dynamics, being highly nonlinear, can be governed by complex fluctuations. Indeed, experimental and field…
Model uncertainty and limited data are fundamental challenges to robust management of human intervention in a natural system. These challenges are acutely highlighted by concerns that many ecological systems may contain tipping points, such…
Self-organized spatial patterns of vegetation are frequent in drylands and, because pattern shape correlates with water availability, they have been suggested as important indicators of ecosystem health. However, the mechanisms underlying…
Industrial ecosystems are coupled with natural systems through utilization of feedstocks and waste disposal. To ensure resilience in production of industrial systems under the threat of climate change scenarios, it is necessary to evaluate…
This study investigates how conditional normalizing flows can be applied to remote sensing data products in climate science for spatio-temporal prediction. The method is chosen due to its desired properties such as exact likelihood…