Related papers: Rethinking tipping points in spatial ecosystems
Abrupt transitions are a central concern in climate and ecological research, and may arise when critical thresholds known as tipping points are crossed. However, previous work has shown that finite-time overshoots of tipping points can be…
We propose a general model to study the interplay between spatial dispersal and environment spatiotemporal fluctuations in metapopulation dynamics. An ecological landscape of favorable patches is generated like a L\'{e}vy dust, which allows…
Analysis of mathematical models in ecology and epidemiology often focuses on asymptotic dynamics, such as stable equilibria and periodic orbits. However, many systems exhibit long transient behaviors where certain aspects of the dynamics…
In this paper we consider the machine learning (ML) task of predicting tipping point transitions and long-term post-tipping-point behavior associated with the time evolution of an unknown (or partially unknown), non-stationary, potentially…
Strong positive feedback is considered a necessary condition to observe abrupt shifts of ecosystems. A few previous studies have shown that demographic noise -- arising from the probabilistic and discrete nature of birth and death processes…
The response of ecosystems to perturbations is considered from a thermodynamic perspective by acknowledging that, as for all macroscopic systems and processes, the dynamics and stability of ecosystems is subject to definite thermodynamic…
When making predictions about ecosystems, we often have available a number of different ecosystem models that attempt to represent their dynamics in a detailed mechanistic way. Each of these can be used as simulators of large-scale…
The literature on the costs of climate change often draws a link between climatic 'tipping points' and large economic shocks, frequently called 'catastrophes'. The use of the phrase 'tipping points' in this context can be misleading. In…
Sudden and abrupt changes can occur in a nonlinear system within many fields of science when such a system crosses a tipping point and rapid changes of the system occur in response to slow changes in an external forcing. These can occur…
Critical transitions describe sudden changes in the state of an ecosystem. In classical bifurcation theory, such transitions occur when the value of a parameter exceeds a threshold (``bifurcation") value. More recently, critical transitions…
Many natural and technological systems fail to adapt to changing external conditions and move to a different state if the conditions vary too fast. Such "non-adiabatic" processes are ubiquitous, but little understood. We identify these…
Due to spatial scarcity and uncertainties in sediment data, initial and boundary conditions in deep-time climate simulations are not well constrained. On the other hand, the climate is a nonlinear system with a multitude of feedback…
Unravelling current complex food systems is relevant for their adjustment and redesign under the current changing climate conditions. Redesign may be necessitated by migration of people and changes of locations of major agri-food…
We study the mitigation of climate tipping point transitions using an energy balance model. The evolution of the global mean surface temperature is coupled with the CO2 concentration through the green house effect. We model the CO2…
Mechanisms of pattern formation---of which the Turing instability is an archetype---constitute an important class of dynamical processes occurring in biological, ecological and chemical systems. Recently, it has been shown that the Turing…
Localised patterns are often observed in models for dryland vegetation, both as peaks of vegetation in a desert state and as gaps within a vegetated state, known as `fairy circles'. Recent results from radial spatial dynamics show that…
Switching dynamical systems provide a powerful, interpretable modeling framework for inference in time-series data in, e.g., the natural sciences or engineering applications. Since many areas, such as biology or discrete-event systems, are…
Spatial patterning and synchronization are pervasive features of plankton communities, yet the mechanisms that allow such patterns to persist coherently under environmental noise remain unresolved. In vertically structured aquatic…
Dryland vegetation can survive water stress by forming spatial patterns but is often subjected to herbivory as an additional stress that puts it at risk of desertification. Understanding the mutual relationships between vegetation…
Vital parts of the climate system, such as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, are at risk even within the aspired aims of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to 1.5 -- 2{\deg}C. These so-called natural tipping elements are…