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In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources, gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2018-05-17 Christos Ordoudis , Pierre Pinson , Juan M. Morales

The increasing importance of renewable energy, especially solar and wind power, has led to new forces in the formation of electricity prices. Hence, this paper introduces an econometric model for the hourly time series of electricity prices…

Applications · Statistics 2021-02-02 Florian Ziel , Rick Steinert , Sven Husmann

In this work, we present a detailed model of a Renewable Energy Source (RES)-based Virtual Power Plant (VPP) that participates in Day-Ahead Market (DAM) and Intra-Day Market (IDM) with dispatchable and non-dispatchable RESs and flexible…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-07 Oluwaseun Oladimeji , Alvaro Ortega , Lukas Sigrist , Luis Rouco , Pedro Sanchez-Martin , Enrique Lobato

Electricity price forecasting is a critical tool for the efficient operation of power systems and for supporting informed decision-making by market participants. This paper explores a novel methodology aimed at improving the accuracy of…

Applications · Statistics 2025-01-13 Bartosz Uniejewski , Florian Ziel

Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting has significant practical implications for grid management, renewable energy integration, power system planning, and price volatility management. This study focuses on enhancing…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-12-12 Joseph Nyangon , Ruth Akintunde

Forecasting electricity prices is a challenging task and an active area of research since the 1990s and the deregulation of the traditionally monopolistic and government-controlled power sectors. Although it aims at predicting both spot and…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-07-23 Katarzyna Maciejowska , Bartosz Uniejewski , Rafał Weron

European Member States are increasingly introducing national capacity mechanisms (CMs) to manage growing adequacy risks. However, isolated national CMs are inefficient in highly interconnected electricity systems, such as the European…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-03-10 Kamal Adekola , Laurens de Vries , Kenneth Bruninx

The interconnected European Electricity Markets see considerable cross-border trade between different countries. In conjunction with the structure and technical characteristics of the power grid and its operating rules, the corresponding…

Physics and Society · Physics 2019-08-09 Mirko Schäfer , Fabian Hofmann , Hazem Abdel-Khalek , Anke Weidlich

In this study, we develop a theoretical model of strategic equilibrium bidding and price-setting behaviour by heterogeneous and boundedly rational electricity producers and a grid operator in a single electricity market under uncertain…

Physics and Society · Physics 2017-04-27 Jobst Heitzig , Hildegard Meyer-Ortmanns , Sabine Auer

Trading on the day-ahead electricity markets requires accurate information about the realization of electricity prices and the uncertainty attached to the predictions. Deriving accurate forecasting models presents a difficult task due to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-25 Hannes Hilger , Dirk Witthaut , Manuel Dahmen , Leonardo Rydin Gorjao , Julius Trebbien , Eike Cramer

In wholesale electricity markets, prices fluctuate widely from hour to hour and electricity generators price-hedge their output using longer-term contracts, such as monthly base futures. Consequently, the incentives they face to drive up…

General Economics · Economics 2025-06-05 Alice Lixuan Xu , Jorge Sánchez Canales , Chiara Fusar Bassini , Lynn H. Kaack , Lion Hirth

To accommodate the advent of microgrids (MG) managing distributed energy resources (DER) in distribution systems, an interactive two-stage joint retail electricity market mechanism is proposed to provide an effective platform for these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-07-28 Chunyi Huang , Mingzhi Zhang , Chengmin Wang , Ning Xie , Jian Wang , Shi Peng

The system operator's scheduling problem in electricity markets, called unit commitment, is a non-convex mixed-integer program. The optimal value function is non-convex, preventing the application of traditional marginal pricing theory to…

General Economics · Economics 2024-10-03 Conleigh Byers , Brent Eldridge

Hybrid AC/DC transmission grids incorporate Modular Multilevel Converters functioning as Interconnecting Power Converters (IPCs). The control role assigned to each converter significantly influences grid dynamics. Traditionally, these…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-03-10 Francesca Rossi , Sergi Costa Dilme , Josep Arevalo-Soler , Eduardo Prieto-Araujo , Oriol Gomis-Bellmunt

The electricity market is threatened by supply scarcity, which may lead to very sharp price spikes in the spot market. On the other hand, demand-side's activities could effectively mitigate the supply scarcity and absorb most of these…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-08-23 Saeed Mohajeryami , Milad Doostan , Seyedmahdi Moghadasi , Peter Schwarz

Future electricity consumption is fundamentally uncertain and dependent on many variables such as economic activity, weather, electricity rates and demand side management. The stochasticity of system load as well as power generation from…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-21 Swasti R. Khuntia , Jose L. Rueda , Mart A. M. M. van der Meijden

We propose a function-on-function linear regression model for time-dependent curve data that is consistently estimated by imposing factor structures on the regressors. An integral operator based on cross-covariances identifies two…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-08-08 Sven Otto , Luis Winter

Although the specific structures of electricity markets are diverse around the world, they were all conceived on the premise of predictable, controllable generation with nonnegligible marginal costs. Recent changes, specifically, the…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2020-12-10 Orcun Karaca

Electricity price forecasting supports decision-making in energy markets and asset operation. Probabilistic forecasts are increasingly adopted to explicitly quantify uncertainty, typically issued as quantile predictions or ensembles of the…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2026-04-22 Simon Hirsch , Florian Ziel

Quantity and price risks are key uncertainties market participants face in electricity markets with increased volatility, for instance, due to high shares of renewables. From day ahead until real-time, there is a large variation in the best…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-02-21 Paul E. Seifert , Emil Kraft , Steffen Bakker , Stein-Erik Fleten