Related papers: Multivariate Simulation-based Forecasting for Intr…
Statistical mechanics provides a useful analog for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including electric power markets and the power systems they intend to govern. Market-based control is founded on the conjecture that…
We review the evidence that the erratic dynamics of markets is to a large extent of endogenous origin, i.e. determined by the trading activity itself and not due to the rational processing of exogenous news. In order to understand why and…
In our paper we analyze the relationship between the day-ahead electricity price of the Energy Exchange Austria (EXAA) and other day-ahead electricity prices in Europe. We focus on markets, which settle their prices after the EXAA, which…
The increasing attention to environmental issues is forcing the implementation of novel energy models based on renewable sources, fundamentally changing the configuration of energy management and introducing new criticalities that are only…
In Europe, Germany is taking the lead in the switch from the conventional to renewable energy. This poses new challenges as wind and solar energy are fundamentally intermittent, weather-dependent and less predictable. It is therefore of…
Data centers (DCs) are emerging as large, geographically distributed, controllable loads whose participation in electricity markets can significantly affect grid operation, especially when cloud platforms shift workloads across sites to…
Electricity price forecasting is an essential task in all the deregulated markets of the world. The accurate prediction of the day-ahead electricity prices is an active research field and available data from various markets can be used as…
Coordination of distributed energy resources is critical for electricity grid management. Although nodal pricing schemes can mitigate congestion and voltage deviations, the resulting prices are not necessarily equitable. In this work, we…
The imbalance costs incurred by a stochastic power producer due to forecast production errors have a significant impact on its total profit and therefore, such an impact needs to be taken into account when evaluating investment decisions.…
The ATLAS model simulates the various stages of the electricity market chain in Europe, including the formulation of offers by different market actors, the coupling of European markets, strategic optimization of production portfolios and,…
The reliable estimation of forecast uncertainties is crucial for risk-sensitive optimal decision making. In this paper, we propose implicit generative ensemble post-processing, a novel framework for multivariate probabilistic electricity…
Frequency dynamics in power systems reflect active power imbalance in real time, thereby providing an instantaneous signal to inform electricity pricing. However, existing real-time markets operate on much slower timescales and fail to…
This two-part paper develops a paradigmatic theory and detailed methods of the joint electricity market design using reinforcement-learning (RL)-based simulation. In Part 2, this theory is further demonstrated by elaborating detailed…
Understanding and predicting the electricity demand responses to prices are critical activities for system operators, retailers, and regulators. While conventional machine learning and time series analyses have been adequate for the routine…
Accurate power forecasting from renewable energy sources (RES) is crucial for integrating additional RES capacity into the power system and realizing sustainability goals. This work emphasizes the importance of integrating decentralized…
In this paper, statistical machine learning algorithms, as well as deep neural networks, are used to predict the values of the price gap between day-ahead and real-time electricity markets. Several exogenous features are collected and…
Our paper aims to model supply and demand curves of electricity day-ahead auction in a parsimonious way. Our main task is to build an appropriate algorithm to present the information about electricity prices and demands with far less…
At present, electricity markets largely ignore the fact that renewable power producers impose significant externalities on non-renewable energy producers. This is because consumers are generally guaranteed electricity within certain load…
We study an optimal portfolio problem designed for an agent operating in intraday electricity markets. The investor is allowed to trade in a single risky asset modelling the continuously traded power and aims to maximize the expected…
As variable renewable energy increases and more demand is electrified, we expect price formation in wholesale electricity markets to transition from being dominated by fossil fuel generators to being dominated by the opportunity costs of…