Related papers: Generic Forward Curve Dynamics for Commodity Deriv…
In a market with transaction costs, the price of a derivative can be expressed in terms of (preconsistent) price systems (after Kusuoka (1995)). In this paper, we consider a market with binomial model for stock price and discuss how to…
This paper presents a new model for pricing financial derivatives subject to collateralization. It allows for collateral arrangements adhering to bankruptcy laws. As such, the model can back out the market price of a collateralized…
In this paper, we establish a market model for the term structure of forward inflation rates based on the risk-neutral dynamics of nominal and real zero-coupon bonds. Under the market model, we can price inflation caplets as well as…
We study valuation of swing options on commodity markets when the commodity prices are driven by multiple factors. The factors are modeled as diffusion processes driven by a multidimensional L\'evy process. We set up a valuation model in…
In this model study of the commodity market, we present some evidence of competition of commodities for the status of money in the regime of parameters, where emergence of money is possible. The competition reveals itself as a rivalry of a…
We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for…
This paper considers the modelling of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). We propose a top-down model via forward rates generalizing Filipovi\'c, Overbeck and Schmidt (2009) to the case where the forward rates are driven by a finite…
We present a function-valued stochastic volatility model designed to capture the continuous-time evolution of forward curves in fixed-income or commodity markets. The dynamics of the (logarithmic) forward curves are defined by a…
Recent literature seek to forecast implied volatility derived from equity, index, foreign exchange, and interest rate options using latent factor and parametric frameworks. Motivated by increased public attention borne out of the…
The phenomenology of the forward rate curve (FRC) can be accurately understood by the fluctuations of a stiff elastic string (Le Coz and Bouchaud, 2024). By relating the exogenous shocks driving such fluctuations to the surprises in the…
In this study we consider the pricing of energy derivatives when the evolution of spot prices is modeled with a normal tempered stable driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Such processes are the generalization of normal inverse Gaussian…
A deterministic trading strategy can be regarded as a signal processing element that uses external information and past prices as inputs and incorporates them into future prices. This paper uses a market maker based method of price…
In this paper we present a rigorously motivated pricing equation for derivatives, including general cash collateralization schemes, which is consistent with quoted market bond prices. Traditionally, there have been differences in how…
We calibrate and test various variants of field theory models of the interest rate with data from eurodollars futures. A model based on a simple psychological factor are seen to provide the best fit to the market. We make a model…
Accurate forecasting of zero coupon bond yields for a continuum of maturities is paramount to bond portfolio management and derivative security pricing. Yet a universal model for yield curve forecasting has been elusive, and prior attempts…
We analyze the relative price change of assets starting from basic supply/demand considerations subject to arbitrary motivations. The resulting stochastic differential equation has coefficients that are functions of supply and demand. We…
In this paper we propose a novel pricing-hedging framework for volatility derivatives which simultaneously takes into account rough volatility and volatility jumps. Our model directly targets the instantaneous variance of a risky asset and…
We consider an HJM model setting for Markov-chain modulated forward rates. The underlying Markov chain is assumed to induce regime switches on the forward curve dynamics. Our primary focus is on the interest rate and energy futures markets.…
In the complex landscape of traditional futures trading, where vast data and variables like real-time Limit Order Books (LOB) complicate price predictions, we introduce the FutureQuant Transformer model, leveraging attention mechanisms to…
A new modelling approach that directly prescribes dynamics to the term structure of VIX futures is proposed in this paper. The approach is motivated by the tractability enjoyed by models that directly prescribe dynamics to the VIX,…