Related papers: Generic Forward Curve Dynamics for Commodity Deriv…
We analyze the VIX futures market with a focus on the exchange-traded notes written on such contracts, in particular we investigate the VXX notes tracking the short-end part of the futures term structure. Inspired by recent developments in…
Model-free and model-based reinforcement learning are two ends of a spectrum. Learning a good policy without a dynamic model can be prohibitively expensive. Learning the dynamic model of a system can reduce the cost of learning the policy,…
We propose a state-space model (SSM) for commodity prices that combines the competitive storage model with a stochastic trend. This approach fits into the economic rationality of storage decisions, and adds to previous deterministic trend…
Perpetual futures are contracts without expiration date in which the anchoring of the futures price to the spot price is ensured by periodic funding payments from long to short. We derive explicit expressions for the no-arbitrage price of…
The paper presents two new approaches to modeling the interaction of small and medium pricetaking traders with a stock exchange. In the framework of these approaches, the traders can form and manage their portfolios of financial instruments…
We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and…
Based on the existing literature, this article presents the different ways of choosing the parameters of stochastic volatility models in general, in the context of pricing financial derivative contracts. This includes the use of stochastic…
We propose and analyze numerically a simple dynamical model that describes the firm behaviors under uncertainty of demand forecast. Iterating this simple model and varying some parameters values we observe a wide variety of market dynamics…
One approach to the analysis of stochastic fluctuations in market prices is to model characteristics of investor behaviour and the complex interactions between market participants, with the aim of extracting consequences in the aggregate.…
We present a systematic, trend-following strategy, applied to commodity futures markets, that combines univariate trend indicators with cross-sectional trend indicators that capture so-called {\em momentum spillover}, which can occur when…
Carbon futures has recently emerged as a novel financial asset in the trading markets such as the European Union and China. Monitoring the trend of the carbon price has become critical for both national policy-making as well as industrial…
Several models for the pricing of derivative securities in illiquid markets are discussed. A typical type of nonlinear partial differential equations arising from these investigation is studied. The scaling properties of these equations are…
We propose a simple statistical-physics-inspired model for the effect of intrinsic fluctuations on supply and demand in markets. The model consists of agents that trade in two types of goods of which the total number is separately…
A computational technique borrowed from the physical sciences is introduced to obtain accurate closed-form approximations for the transition probability of arbitrary diffusion processes. Within the path integral framework the same technique…
We present a model of financial markets originally proposed for a turbulent flow, as a dynamic basis of its intermittent behavior. Time evolution of the price change is assumed to be described by Brownian motion in a power-law potential,…
We use standard physics techniques to model trading and price formation in a market under the assumption that order arrival and cancellations are Poisson random processes. This model makes testable predictions for the most basic properties…
We develop a methodology for index tracking and risk exposure control using financial derivatives. Under a continuous-time diffusion framework for price evolution, we present a pathwise approach to construct dynamic portfolios of…
We introduce a stochastic price model where, together with a random component, a moving average of logarithmic prices contributes to the price formation. Our model is tested against financial datasets, showing an extremely good agreement…
As large language models (LLMs) and vision-language-action models (VLAs) become widely deployed, the tokens consumed by AI inference are evolving into a new type of commodity. This paper systematically analyzes the commodity attributes of…
We study a notion of good-deal hedging, that corresponds to good-deal valuation for generalized good-deal constraints. Under model uncertainty about the market prices of risk of hedging assets, a robust approach leads to a reduction or even…