Related papers: Computing large deviation prefactors of stochastic…
This paper introduces a framework based on Large Deviation Theory (LDT) to accurately and efficiently compute the rare probabilities of voltage collapse. We formulate the problem as finding the most probable failure point (the instanton) on…
A Large Deviation Principle (LDP) is established for the stationary distribution of the number of customers in a many--server queue in heavy traffic for a moderate deviation scaling akin to the Halfin--Whitt regime. The interarrival and…
Much work in the study of large deviations for random graph models is focused on the dense regime where the theory of graphons has emerged as a principal tool. These tools do not give a good approach to large deviation problems for random…
The paper concerns itself with establishing large deviation principles for a sequence of stochastic integrals and stochastic differential equations driven by general semimartingales in infinite-dimensional settings. The class of…
We consider a discrete time stochastic queueing system where a controller makes a 2-stage decision every slot. The decision at the first stage reveals a hidden source of randomness with a control-dependent (but unknown) probability…
Predicting the occurence of rare and extreme events in complex systems is a well-known problem in non-equilibrium physics. These events can have huge impacts on human societies. New approaches have emerged in the last ten years, which…
We prove a maximal-type large deviation principle for dynamical systems with arbitrarily slow polynomial mixing rates. Also several applications, particularly to billiard systems, are presented.
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm…
This article concerns the large deviations regime and the consequent solution of the Kramers problem for a two-time scale stochastic system driven by a common jump noise signal perturbed in small intensity $\varepsilon>0$ and with…
This paper addresses sampling-based trajectory optimization for risk-aware navigation under stochastic dynamics. Typically such approaches operate by computing $\tilde{N}$ perturbed rollouts around the nominal dynamics to estimate the…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…
The emergence of the exit events from a bounded domain containing a stable fixed point induced by non-Gaussian L\'evy fluctuations plays a pivotal role in practical physical systems. In the limit of weak noise, we develop a Hamiltonian…
In this paper, we aim to study the asymptotic behavior for multi-scale McKean-Vlasov stochastic dynamical systems. Firstly, we obtain a central limit type theorem, i.e, the deviation between the slow component $X^{\varepsilon}$ and the…
Extensive time-series encoding the position of particles such as viruses, vesicles, or individual proteins are routinely garnered in single-particle tracking experiments or supercomputing studies. They contain vital clues on how viruses…
In this paper we study the reachability problem for discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems. Our goal is to present a unified framework for calculating the probabilistic reachable set of discrete-time systems in the presence of both…
Large deviations for additive path functionals of stochastic dynamics and related numerical approaches have attracted significant recent research interest. We focus on the question of convergence properties for cloning algorithms in…
The theory of large deviations has been applied successfully in the last 30 years or so to study the properties of equilibrium systems and to put the foundations of equilibrium statistical mechanics on a clearer and more rigorous footing. A…
Given a visual history, multiple future outcomes for a video scene are equally probable, in other words, the distribution of future outcomes has multiple modes. Multimodality is notoriously hard to handle by standard regressors or…
We study a model of stochastic evolutionary game dynamics in which the probabilities that agents choose suboptimal actions are dependent on payoff consequences. We prove a sample path large deviation principle, characterizing the rate of…
In this paper, I derive a closed expression for how precisely a small-scaled system can follow a pre-defined trajectory, while keeping its dissipation below a fixed limit. The total amount of dissipation is approximately inversely…