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The resilience of electric power grids is threatened by natural hazards. Climate-related hazards are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change. Statistical analyses clearly demonstrate a rise in the number of incidents (power…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-04-30 George Karagiannakis , Mathaios Panteli , Sotirios Argyroudis

Experimental data is often affected by uncontrolled variables that make analysis and interpretation difficult. For spatiotemporal systems, this problem is further exacerbated by their intricate dynamics. Modern machine learning methods are…

Computational Physics · Physics 2020-09-16 Peter Y. Lu , Samuel Kim , Marin Soljačić

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Applications · Statistics 2025-05-29 Jonathan Koh , Daniel Steinfeld , Olivia Martius

We propose an index to quantify and analyse the impact of climatological variability on the energy system at different timescales. We define the Climatological Renewable Energy Deviation Index (CREDI) as the cumulative anomaly of a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-02-29 Laurens P. Stoop , Karin van der Wiel , William Zappa , Arno Haverkamp , Ad J. Feelders , Machteld van den Broek

Short-Term Electricity-Load Forecasting (STELF) refers to the prediction of the immediate demand (in the next few hours to several days) for the power system. Various external factors, such as weather changes and the emergence of new…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Qi Dong , Rubing Huang , Chenhui Cui , Dave Towey , Ling Zhou , Jinyu Tian , Jianzhou Wang

Parameter estimation, which represents a classical inverse problem, is often ill-posed as different parameter combinations can yield identical outputs. This non-uniqueness poses a critical barrier to accurate and unique identification. This…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Feiqin Zhu , Dmitrii Torbunov , Zhongjing Jiang , Tianqiao Zhao , Amirthagunaraj Yogarathnam , Yihui Ren , Meng Yue

We propose a forecasting technique based on multi-feature data fusion to enhance the accuracy of an electric vehicle (EV) charging station load forecasting deep-learning model. The proposed method uses multi-feature inputs based on…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-02-01 Prince Aduama , Zhibo Zhang , Ameena S. Al Sumaiti

Electric energy is difficult to store, requiring stricter control over its generation, transmission, and distribution. A persistent challenge in power systems is maintaining real-time equilibrium between electricity demand and supply.…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-27 Aurausp Maneshni

One of the primal challenges faced by utility companies is ensuring efficient supply with minimal greenhouse gas emissions. The advent of smart meters and smart grids provide an unprecedented advantage in realizing an optimised supply of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-07-19 Adithya Ramachandran , Satyaki Chatterjee , Siming Bayer , Andreas Maier , Thorkil Flensmark

Electricity load forecasting for buildings and campuses is becoming increasingly important as the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) grows. Efficient operation and dispatch of DERs require reasonably accurate predictions of…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-12-20 Sakshi Mishra , Stephen M. Frank , Anya Petersen , Robert Buechler , Michelle Slovensky

PV power forecasting models are predominantly based on machine learning algorithms which do not provide any insight into or explanation about their predictions (black boxes). Therefore, their direct implementation in environments where…

Applications · Statistics 2022-11-08 Georgios Mitrentsis , Hendrik Lens

Advanced machine learning models have recently achieved high predictive accuracy for weather and climate prediction. However, these complex models often lack inherent transparency and interpretability, acting as "black boxes" that impede…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-29 Ruyi Yang , Jingyu Hu , Zihao Li , Jianli Mu , Tingzhao Yu , Jiangjiang Xia , Xuhong Li , Aritra Dasgupta , Haoyi Xiong

Extreme events frequently occur in real-world time series and often carry significant practical implications. In domains such as climate and healthcare, these events, such as floods, heatwaves, or acute medical episodes, can lead to serious…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-24 Quan Li , Wenchao Yu , Suhang Wang , Minhua Lin , Lingwei Chen , Wei Cheng , Haifeng Chen

Ensuring the reliability of power electronic converters is a matter of great importance, and data-driven condition monitoring techniques are cementing themselves as an important tool for this purpose. However, translating methods that work…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-28 Pere Izquierdo Gomez , Miguel E. Lopez Gajardo , Nenad Mijatovic , Tomislav Dragicevic

Seasonal climate variations affect electricity demand, which in turn affects month-to-month electricity planning and operations. Electricity system planning at the monthly timescale can be improved by adapting climate forecasts to estimate…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-11-12 A. R. de Queiroz , D. Mulcahy , A. Sankarasubramanian , J. P. Deane , G. Mahinthakumar , N. Lu , J. F. DeCarolis

Time series forecasting is a crucial challenge with significant applications in areas such as weather prediction, stock market analysis, and scientific simulations. This paper introduces an embedded decomposed transformer, 'EDformer', for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Sanjay Chakraborty , Ibrahim Delibasoglu , Fredrik Heintz

Smart buildings are gaining popularity because they can enhance energy efficiency, lower costs, improve security, and provide a more comfortable and convenient environment for building occupants. A considerable portion of the global energy…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2025-06-16 Mehdi Neshat , Menasha Thilakaratne , Mohammed El-Abd , Seyedali Mirjalili , Amir H. Gandomi , John Boland

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-06 Jethro Browell , Matteo Fasiolo

Time series forecasting is crucial for various applications, such as weather, traffic, electricity, and energy predictions. Currently, common time series forecasting methods are based on Transformers. However, existing approaches primarily…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-30 Zixu Wang , Hongbin Dong , Xiaoping Zhang

Short-term forecasting models typically assume the availability of input data (features) when they are deployed and in use. However, equipment failures, disruptions, cyberattacks, may lead to missing features when such models are used…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-30 Akylas Stratigakos , Panagiotis Andrianesis