Related papers: Modeling First Arrival of Migratory Birds using a …
Life forms exhibit such a degree of exquisite organization that it seems impossible that they could have developed out of a process of trial and error, as intimated by the theory of Darwinian evolution. In this general public paper I…
We investigate the extreme first-passage statistics of $N$ non-interacting random walkers on discrete, hierarchical networks. {By distinguishing between transport limited by escape from localized initial states (injection-limited) and…
The theory of Type~I migration has been widely used in many studies. Transiting multi-planet systems offer us the opportunity to examine the consistency between observation and theory, especially for those systems harbouring planets in Mean…
The time it takes the fastest searcher out of $N\gg1$ searchers to find a target determines the timescale of many physical, chemical, and biological processes. This time is called an extreme first passage time (FPT) and is typically much…
In many real life situations one has $m$ types of random events happening in chronological order within a time interval and one wishes to predict various milestones about these events or their subsets. An example is birdwatching. Suppose we…
Many biological, social, and communication systems can be modeled by ``searchers'' moving through a complex network. For example, intracellular cargo is transported on tubular networks, news and rumors spread through online social networks,…
The classical multivariate extreme-value theory concerns the modeling of extremes in a multivariate random sample, suggesting the use of max-stable distributions. In this work, the classical theory is extended to the case where aggregated…
We give a brief account of application of extreme value theory in dynamical systems by using perturbation techniques associated to the transfer operator. We will apply it to the baker's map and we will get a precise formula for the extremal…
We study the extreme value statistics of a run and tumble particle (RTP) in one dimension till its first passage to the origin starting from the position $x_0~(>0)$. This model has recently drawn a lot of interest due to its biological…
The main goal of machine learning (ML) is to study and improve mathematical models which can be trained with data provided by the environment to infer the future and to make decisions without necessarily having complete knowledge of all…
Large language model-powered multi-agent systems have emerged as powerful tools for simulating complex human-like systems. The interactions within these systems often lead to extreme events whose origins remain obscured by the black box of…
For many environmental processes, recent studies have shown that the dependence strength is decreasing when quantile levels increase. This implies that the popular max-stable models are inadequate to capture the rate of joint tail decay,…
Extreme events have an important role which is sometime catastrophic in a variety of natural phenomena including climate, earthquakes and turbulence, as well as in man-made environments like financial markets. Statistical analysis and…
Abundance data are used in ecology for species monitoring and conservation. These count data often display several specific characteristics like numerous missing data, high variance, and a high proportion of zeros, particularly when…
Flocking is a paradigmatic example of collective animal behaviour, where decentralized interaction rules give rise to a globally ordered state. In the emergence of order out of self-organization we find similarities between biological…
Accurate forecasting of avian disease outbreaks is critical for wildlife conservation and public health. This study presents a Transformer-based framework for predicting the disease risk at the terminal locations of migratory bird…
Grazing transits present a special problem for statistical studies of exoplanets. Even though grazing planetary orbits are rare (due to geometric selection effects), for many low to moderate signal-to-noise cases, a significant fraction of…
How migratory birds can find the right way in navigating over thousand miles is an intriguing question, which much interested researchers in both fields of biology and physics for centuries. There several putative proposals that sound…
We develop methods, based on extreme value theory, for analysing observations in the tails of longitudinal data, i.e., a data set consisting of a large number of short time series, which are typically irregularly and non-simultaneously…
Multivariate extreme value distributions are a common choice for modelling multivariate extremes. In high dimensions, however, the construction of flexible and parsimonious models is challenging. We propose to combine bivariate max-stable…