Related papers: Modeling First Arrival of Migratory Birds using a …
Citizen science mobilises many observers and gathers huge datasets but often without strict sampling protocols, resulting in observation biases due to heterogeneous sampling effort, which can lead to biased statistical inferences. We…
We study analytically and numerically the extreme value distribution of observables defined along the temporal evolution of a dynamical system. The convergence to the Gumbel law of observable recurrences gives information on the fractal…
While the overarching pattern of biannual avian migration is well understood, there are significant questions pertaining to this phenomenon that invite further study. Necessary to any analysis of these questions is an understanding of how a…
Multivariate extreme value statistical analysis is concerned with observations on several variables which are thought to possess some degree of tail-dependence. In areas such as the modeling of financial and insurance risks, or as the…
Many scientific questions can be framed as asking for a first passage time (FPT), which generically describes the time it takes a random "searcher" to find a "target." The important timescale in a variety of biophysical systems is the time…
The extreme value statistics of active matter offer significant insight into their unique properties. A phase transition has recently been reported in a model of branching run-and-tumble particles, describing the spatial spreading of an…
In many biophysical systems, key events are triggered when the fastest of many random searchers find a target. Most mathematical models of such systems assume that all searchers are initially present in the search domain, which permits the…
Bird migration is an adaptive behavior ultimately aiming at optimizing survival and reproductive success. We propose an optimal switching model to study bird migration, where birds' migration behaviors can be efficiently modeled as…
Bird species' migratory patterns have typically been studied through individual observations and historical records. In recent years however, the eBird citizen science project, which solicits observations from thousands of bird watchers…
Many events in biology are triggered when a diffusing searcher finds a target, which is called a first passage time (FPT). The overwhelming majority of FPT studies have analyzed the time it takes a single searcher to find a target. However,…
We consider a particle which moves on the x axis and is subject to a constant force, such as gravity, plus a random force in the form of Gaussian white noise. We analyze the statistics of first arrival at point $x_1$ of a particle which…
We use extreme value theory to estimate the probability of successive exceedances of a threshold value of a time-series of an observable on several classes of chaotic dynamical systems. The observables have either a Fr\'echet (fat-tailed)…
We study the distribution of maxima (Extreme Value Statistics) for sequences of observables computed along orbits generated by random transformations. The underlying, deterministic, dynamical system can be regular or chaotic. In the former…
This paper is devoted to the prediction problem in extreme value theory. Our main result is an explicit expression of the regular conditional distribution of a max-stable (or max-infinitely divisible) process $\{\eta(t)\}_{t\in T}$ given…
The statistics of the slowest first-passage time among a large population of $N$ searchers is crucial for determining the completion time of many stochastic processes. Classical extreme-value theory predicts that for diffusing particles in…
We consider discrete time dynamical systems and show the link between Hitting Time Statistics (the distribution of the first time points land in asymptotically small sets) and Extreme Value Theory (distribution properties of the partial…
The purpose of this paper is to illustrate new techniques for computing multiday extreme precipitation taken from recent theoretical advancements in extreme value theory in the framework of dynamical systems, using historical precipitation…
We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating…
With technological advancements, the quantity and quality of animal movement data have increased greatly. Currently, no movement model can be used to describe full-year data from migratory species by leveraging both individual movement and…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- hierarchical structure, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical branching diffusion with…