Related papers: Markov bases: a 25 year update

The paper presents a generalization of the local limit theorem on the convergence of inhomogeneous Markov chains to the diffusion limit for the case where the corresponding process coefficients satisfy weak regularity conditions and…

Sampling from learned high-dimensional distributions is a foundational computational problem. We introduce U-turn chains: Markov chains obtained by iterating short forward-backward steps of a diffusion model, in which each step proposes a…

We provide a novel method for sensitivity analysis of parametric robust Markov chains. These models incorporate parameters and sets of probability distributions to alleviate the often unrealistic assumption that precise probabilities are…

We develop a martingale approximation approach to studying the limiting behavior of quadratic forms of Markov chains. We use the technique to examine the asymptotic behavior of lag-window estimators in time series and we apply the results…

We propose a sequential Markov chain Monte Carlo (SMCMC) algorithm to sample from a sequence of probability distributions, corresponding to posterior distributions at different times in on-line applications. SMCMC proceeds as in usual MCMC…

In this paper, we are interested in investigating the perturbation bounds for the stationary distributions for discrete-time or continuous-time Markov chains on a countable state space. For discrete-time Markov chains, two new norm-wise…

The analysis of high-dimensional time series data has become increasingly important across a wide range of fields. Recently, a method for constructing the minimum information Markov kernel on finite state spaces was established. In this…

We present a method to sample Markov-chain trajectories constrained to both the initial and final conditions, which we term Markov bridges. The trajectories are conditioned to end in a specific state at a given time. We derive the master…

We propose two new measures for extracting the unique information in $X$ and not $Y$ about a message $M$, when $X, Y$ and $M$ are joint random variables with a given joint distribution. We take a Markov based approach, motivated by…

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have become a cornerstone of many modern scientific analyses by providing a straightforward approach to numerically estimate uncertainties in the parameters of a model using a sequence of random…

Conformal prediction is a widely used method to quantify the uncertainty of a classifier under the assumption of exchangeability (e.g., IID data). We generalize conformal prediction to the Hidden Markov Model (HMM) framework where the…

In this short paper, we consider discrete-time Markov chains on lattices as approximations to continuous-time diffusion processes. The approximations can be interpreted as finite difference schemes for the generator of the process. We…

Filtering is concerned with the sequential estimation of the state, and uncertainties, of a Markovian system, given noisy observations. It is particularly difficult to achieve accurate filtering in complex dynamical systems, such as those…

Sampling from the conditional (or posterior) probability distribution of the latent states of a Hidden Markov Model, given the realization of the observed process, is a non-trivial problem in the context of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. To do…

We investigate the convergence in distribution of sequential empirical processes of dependent data indexed by a class of functions F. Our technique is suitable for processes that satisfy a multiple mixing condition on a space of functions…

The reduced Markov branching process is a stochastic model for the genealogy of an unstructured biological population. Its limit behavior in the critical case is well studied for the Zolotarev-Slack regularity parameter $\alpha\in(0,1]$. We…

Nonlinear Markov chains with finite state space have been introduced in Kolokoltsov (2010). The characteristic property of these processes is that the transition probabilities do not only depend on the state, but also on the distribution of…

Distribution testing deals with what information can be deduced about an unknown distribution over $\{1,\ldots,n\}$, where the algorithm is only allowed to obtain a relatively small number of independent samples from the distribution. In…

Real-world complex systems are often modelled by sets of equations with endogenous and exogenous variables. What can we say about the causal and probabilistic aspects of variables that appear in these equations without explicitly solving…

The density-dependent Markov chain (DDMC) introduced in \cite{Kurtz1978} is a continuous time Markov process applied in fields such as epidemics, chemical reactions and so on. In this paper, we give moderate deviation principles of paths of…