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We investigate a way of comparing and classifying tails of random variables. Our approach extends the notion of classical indices, such as exponential and moment indices, which are widely used measuring heaviness of tail functions. A…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-07 Jaakko Lehtomaa

In a wide variety of sequential decision making problems, it can be important to estimate the impact of rare events in order to minimize risk exposure. A popular risk measure is the conditional value-at-risk (CVaR), which is commonly…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-11 Dylan Troop , Frédéric Godin , Jia Yuan Yu

One potential solution to combat the scarcity of tail observations in extreme value analysis is to integrate information from multiple datasets sharing similar tail properties, for instance, a common extreme value index. In other words, for…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-25 Liujun Chen , Marco Oesting , Chen Zhou

This paper proposes a safety analysis method that facilitates a tunable balance between the worst-case and risk-neutral perspectives. First, we define a risk-sensitive safe set to specify the degree of safety attained by a stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-28 Margaret P. Chapman , Jonathan P. Lacotte , Kevin M. Smith , Insoon Yang , Yuxi Han , Marco Pavone , Claire J. Tomlin

Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and accordingly unpromising performance especially on tail classes. Recently, the ensembling based methods achieve the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Bolian Li , Zongbo Han , Haining Li , Huazhu Fu , Changqing Zhang

Machine learning algorithms with empirical risk minimization are vulnerable under distributional shifts due to the greedy adoption of all the correlations found in training data. Recently, there are robust learning methods aiming at this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-05-12 Jiashuo Liu , Zheyan Shen , Peng Cui , Linjun Zhou , Kun Kuang , Bo Li , Yishi Lin

With the growing use of machine learning (ML) models in critical domains such as finance and healthcare, the need to offer recourse for those adversely affected by the decisions of ML models has become more important; individuals ought to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-02 Haochen Wu , Shubham Sharma , Sunandita Patra , Sriram Gopalakrishnan

Recent developments in large language models (LLMs) have led to their widespread usage for various tasks. The prevalence of LLMs in society implores the assurance on the reliability of their performance. In particular, risk-sensitive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-28 Catherine Yu-Chi Chen , Jingyan Shen , Zhun Deng , Lihua Lei

In this article, by using composite asymmetric least squares (CALS) and empirical likelihood, we propose a two-step procedure to estimate the conditional value at risk (VaR) and conditional expected shortfall (ES) for the GARCH series.…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-07-05 Sheng Wu , Yi Zhang , Jun Zhao , Liming Shen

The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem is a ubiquitous decision-making problem that exemplifies the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. Standard formulations exclude risk in decision making. Risk notably complicates the basic reward-maximising…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-05 Joel Q. L. Chang , Qiuyu Zhu , Vincent Y. F. Tan

Collaborative Filtering (CF) is a widely used technique which allows to leverage past users' preferences data to identify behavioural patterns and exploit them to predict custom recommendations. In this work, we illustrate our review of…

Information Retrieval · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Andrea Pinto , Giacomo Camposampiero , Loïc Houmard , Marc Lundwall

Causal questions are omnipresent in many scientific problems. While much progress has been made in the analysis of causal relationships between random variables, these methods are not well suited if the causal mechanisms only manifest…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-23 Nicola Gnecco , Nicolai Meinshausen , Jonas Peters , Sebastian Engelke

Federated learning (FL) systems are susceptible to attacks from malicious actors who might attempt to corrupt the training model through various poisoning attacks. FL also poses new challenges in addressing group bias, such as ensuring fair…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-06-08 Viktor Valadi , Xinchi Qiu , Pedro Porto Buarque de Gusmão , Nicholas D. Lane , Mina Alibeigi

We develop an efficient simulation algorithm for computing the tail probabilities of the infinite series $S = \sum_{n \geq 1} a_n X_n$ when random variables $X_n$ are heavy-tailed. As $S$ is the sum of infinitely many random variables, any…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-08 Henrik Hult , Sandeep Juneja , Karthyek Murthy

Options are generally learned by using an inaccurate environment model (or simulator), which contains uncertain model parameters. While there are several methods to learn options that are robust against the uncertainty of model parameters,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-01 Takuya Hiraoka , Takahisa Imagawa , Tatsuya Mori , Takashi Onishi , Yoshimasa Tsuruoka

This study investigates the optimal selection of parameters for collaborative clustering while ensuring data privacy. We focus on key clustering algorithms within a collaborative framework, where multiple data owners combine their data. A…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-11 Maryam Ghasemian , Erman Ayday

Safety is a core challenge of autonomous robot motion planning, especially in the presence of dynamic and uncertain obstacles. Many recent results use learning and deep learning-based motion planners and prediction modules to predict…

Robotics · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Sleiman Safaoui , Tyler H. Summers

We introduce a method to estimate simultaneously the tail and the threshold parameters of an extreme value regression model. This standard model finds its use in finance to assess the effect of market variables on extreme loss distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-17 Julien Hambuckers , Marie Kratz , Antoine Usseglio-Carleve

The spectral risk has wide applications in machine learning, especially in real-world decision-making, where people are not only concerned with models' average performance. By assigning different weights to the losses of different sample…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-07-23 Yuze Ge , Rujun Jiang

Federated active learning (FAL) seeks to reduce annotation cost under privacy constraints, yet its effectiveness degrades in realistic settings with severe global class imbalance and highly heterogeneous clients. We conduct a systematic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-12 Chen-Chen Zong , Sheng-Jun Huang
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