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Regression-based optimal fingerprinting techniques for climate change detection and attribution require the estimation of the forced signal as well as the internal variability covariance matrix in order to distinguish between their…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-08-08 Samuel Baugh , Karen McKinnon

Simulators often require calibration inputs estimated from real world data and the quality of the estimate can significantly affect simulation output. Particularly when performing simulation optimisation to find an optimal solution, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-02 Juan Ungredda , Michael Pearce , Juergen Branke

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is an effective framework for globally optimizing functions whose evaluations are expensive. It is particularly effective for optimizing functions defined over continuous domains and explicitly handles stochastic…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-05-21 Buqing Ou , Frederike Dümbgen

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular framework to optimize black-box functions. In many applications, the objective function can be evaluated at multiple fidelities to enable a trade-off between the cost and accuracy. To reduce the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-11 Shibo Li , Wei Xing , Mike Kirby , Shandian Zhe

Bayesian optimisation is a sample efficient method for finding a global optimum of expensive black-box objective functions. Historic datasets from related problems can be exploited to help improve performance of Bayesian optimisation by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Natasha Trinkle , Huong Ha , Jeffrey Chan

Bayesian optimization (BO ) is an effective method for optimizing expensive-to-evaluate black-box functions. While high-dimensional problems can be particularly challenging, due to the multitude of parameter choices and the potentially high…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-09 Erik Hellsten , Carl Hvarfner , Leonard Papenmeier , Luigi Nardi

Many real-world tasks require optimizing expensive black-box functions accessible only through noisy evaluations, a setting commonly addressed with Bayesian optimization (BO). While Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have recently emerged as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-14 Farhad Mirkarimi

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular, sample-efficient technique for expensive, black-box optimization. One such problem arising in manufacturing is that of maximizing the reliability, or equivalently minimizing the probability of a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jack M. Buckingham , Ivo Couckuyt , Juergen Branke

Existing black-box portfolio management systems are prevalent in the financial industry due to commercial and safety constraints, though their performance can fluctuate dramatically with changing market regimes. Evaluating these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-30 Zinuo You , John Cartlidge , Karen Elliott , Menghan Ge , Daniel Gold

Surrogate algorithms such as Bayesian optimisation are especially designed for black-box optimisation problems with expensive objectives, such as hyperparameter tuning or simulation-based optimisation. In the literature, these algorithms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-03-14 Laurens Bliek , Arthur Guijt , Rickard Karlsson , Sicco Verwer , Mathijs de Weerdt

Bayesian optimisation has been successfully applied to a variety of reinforcement learning problems. However, the traditional approach for learning optimal policies in simulators does not utilise the opportunity to improve learning by…

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method for efficiently inferring optima of an expensive black-box function via a sequence of queries. Existing information-theoretic BO procedures aim to make queries that most reduce the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-05 Willie Neiswanger , Lantao Yu , Shengjia Zhao , Chenlin Meng , Stefano Ermon

Bayesian optimization (BO) has gained attention as an efficient algorithm for black-box optimization of expensive-to-evaluate systems, where the BO algorithm iteratively queries the system and suggests new trials based on a probabilistic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-13 Eike Cramer , Luis Kutschat , Oliver Stollenwerk , Joel A. Paulson , Alexander Mitsos

Optimization strategies driven by machine learning, such as Bayesian optimization, are being explored across experimental sciences as an efficient alternative to traditional design of experiment. When combined with automated laboratory…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-10-18 Riley J. Hickman , Matteo Aldeghi , Florian Häse , Alán Aspuru-Guzik

Bayesian Optimization is a very effective tool for optimizing expensive black-box functions. Inspired by applications developing and characterizing reaction chemistry using droplet microfluidic reactors, we consider a novel setting where…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-01-12 Jose Pablo Folch , Shiqiang Zhang , Robert M Lee , Behrang Shafei , David Walz , Calvin Tsay , Mark van der Wilk , Ruth Misener

The process of calibrating computer models of natural phenomena is essential for applications in the physical sciences, where plenty of domain knowledge can be embedded into simulations and then calibrated against real observations. Current…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-20 Rafael Oliveira , Dino Sejdinovic , David Howard , Edwin V. Bonilla

Bayesian optimisation is an adaptive sampling strategy for constructing a Gaussian process surrogate to efficiently search for the global minimum of a black-box computational model. Gaussian processes have limited applicability in…

Applications · Statistics 2025-12-04 Thomas A. Archbold , Ieva Kazlauskaite , Fehmi Cirak

Black-box model-based optimization (MBO) problems, where the goal is to find a design input that maximizes an unknown objective function, are ubiquitous in a wide range of domains, such as the design of proteins, DNA sequences, aircraft,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-18 Brandon Trabucco , Xinyang Geng , Aviral Kumar , Sergey Levine

Bayesian Optimization (BO) methods are useful for optimizing functions that are expen- sive to evaluate, lack an analytical expression and whose evaluations can be contaminated by noise. These methods rely on a probabilistic model of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-02-04 Eduardo C. Garrido-Merchán , Daniel Hernández-Lobato

Black-box optimization is a powerful approach for discovering global optima in noisy and expensive black-box functions, a problem widely encountered in real-world scenarios. Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging domain…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-06 Dat Phan-Trong , Hung The Tran , Alistair Shilton , Sunil Gupta
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