Related papers: On Tail Decay Rate Estimation of Loss Function Dis…
We propose an analytical approach to the computation of tail probabilities of compound distributions whose individual components have heavy tails. Our approach is based on the contour integration method, and gives rise to a representation…
The task of estimation of the tails of probability distributions having small samples seems to be still opened and almost unsolvable. The paper tries to make a step in filling this gap. In 2017 Jordanova et al. introduce six new…
Using an intrinsic approach, we study some properties of random fields which appear as tail fields of regularly varying stationary random fields. The index set is allowed to be a general locally compact Hausdorff Abelian group $\mathbb{G}$.…
We study the generalization properties of unregularized gradient methods applied to separable linear classification -- a setting that has received considerable attention since the pioneering work of Soudry et al. (2018). We establish tight…
Many management decisions involve accumulated random realizations for which only the first and second moments of their distribution are available. The sharp Chebyshev-type bound for the tail probability and Scarf bound for the expected loss…
Conformal prediction has emerged as a rigorous means of providing deep learning models with reliable uncertainty estimates and safety guarantees. Yet, its performance is known to degrade under distribution shift and long-tailed class…
It is argued that there is a need for fat-tailed distributions that become thin in the extreme tail. A 3-parameter distribution is introduced that visually resembles the t-distribution and interpolates between the normal distribution and…
Classification on long-tailed distributed data is a challenging problem, which suffers from serious class-imbalance and hence poor performance on tail classes with only a few samples. Owing to this paucity of samples, learning on the tail…
Assessing dependence within co-movements of financial instruments has been of much interest in risk management. Typically, indices of tail dependence are used to quantify the strength of such dependence, although many of the indices…
We report multicanonical Monte Carlo simulations of the tails of the order-parameter distribution of the two-dimensional Ising model for fixed boundary conditions. Clear numerical evidence for "fat" stretched exponential tails is found…
We propose a novel probabilistic model to facilitate the learning of multivariate tail dependence of multiple financial assets. Our method allows one to construct from known random vectors, e.g., standard normal, sophisticated joint…
Many data distributions in the real world are hardly uniform. Instead, skewed and long-tailed distributions of various kinds are commonly observed. This poses an interesting problem for machine learning, where most algorithms assume or work…
In risk theory, financial asset returns often follow heavy-tailed distributions. Investors and risk managers used to compare risk measures as the value at risk or tail value at risk in order over the whole confidence levels to avoid the…
We provide a detailed study on the implicit bias of gradient descent when optimizing loss functions with strictly monotone tails, such as the logistic loss, over separable datasets. We look at two basic questions: (a) what are the…
We determine the rate of decrease of the right tail distribution of the exponential functional of a Levy process with a convolution equivalent Levy measure. Our main result establishes that it decreases as the right tail of the image under…
In many areas of interest, modern risk assessment requires estimation of the extremal behaviour of sums of random variables. We derive the first order upper-tail behaviour of the weighted sum of bivariate random variables under weak…
We model systemic risk using a common factor that accounts for market-wide shocks and a tail dependence factor that accounts for linkages among extreme stock returns. Specifically, our theoretical model allows for firm-specific impacts of…
Heavy-tailed distributions are frequently used to enhance the robustness of regression and classification methods to outliers in output space. Often, however, we are confronted with "outliers" in input space, which are isolated observations…
We propose an approach to compute the conditional moments of fat-tailed phenomena that, only looking at data, could be mistakenly considered as having infinite mean. This type of problems manifests itself when a random variable Y has a…
There is an increasing interest to understand the dependence structure of a random vector not only in the center of its distribution but also in the tails. Extreme-value theory tackles the problem of modelling the joint tail of a…