Related papers: On Tail Decay Rate Estimation of Loss Function Dis…
We analyze neural scaling laws in a solvable model of last-layer fine-tuning where targets have intrinsic, instance-heterogeneous difficulty. In our Latent Instance Difficulty (LID) model, each input's target variance is governed by a…
A theoretical expression is derived for the mean squared error of a nonparametric estimator of the tail dependence coefficient, depending on a threshold that defines which rank delimits the tails of a distribution. We propose a new method…
Expected Shortfall (ES) is a coherent measure of tail risk that captures the average loss beyond a quantile threshold. Despite the growing literature on ES regression conditional on covariates, no existing work considers ES modeling in…
The goodness-of-fit test for discrimination of two tail distribution using higher order statistics is proposed. The consistency of proposed test is proved for two different alternatives. We do not assume belonging the corresponding…
Motivated by the growing interest in sound forecast evaluation techniques with an emphasis on distribution tails rather than average behaviour, we investigate a fundamental question arising in this context: Can statistical features of…
In this paper we are concerned with the analysis of heavy-tailed data when a portion of the extreme values is unavailable. This research was motivated by an analysis of the degree distributions in a large social network. The degree…
In this paper, we introduce reduced-bias estimators for the estimation of the tail index of a Pareto-type distribution. This is achieved through the use of a regularised weighted least squares with an exponential regression model for…
Drift analysis is one of the state-of-the-art techniques for the runtime analysis of randomized search heuristics (RSHs) such as evolutionary algorithms (EAs), simulated annealing etc. The vast majority of existing drift theorems yield…
Probabilistic forecasts comprehensively describe the uncertainty in the unknown future outcome, making them essential for decision making and risk management. While several methods have been introduced to evaluate probabilistic forecasts,…
Consider $n$ i.i.d. random vectors on $\mathbb{R}^2$, with unknown, common distribution function $F$. Under a sharpening of the extreme value condition on $F$, we derive a weighted approximation of the corresponding tail copula process.…
We discuss in this paper a possibility of constructing a whole class of asymptotic distribution-free tests for testing regularly varying tail distributions. The idea is that we treat the tails of distributions as members of a parametric…
Long-tailed classification poses a challenge due to its heavy imbalance in class probabilities and tail-sensitivity risks with asymmetric misprediction costs. Recent attempts have used re-balancing loss and ensemble methods, but they are…
Tail risk measures are fully determined by the distribution of the underlying loss beyond its quantile at a certain level, with Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall and Range Value-at-Risk being prime examples. They are induced by law-based…
Accurate channel modeling plays a pivotal role in optimizing communication systems, and fitting field measurements to stochastic models is crucial for capturing the key propagation features and to map these to achievable system…
Measures of tail dependence between random variables aim to numerically quantify the degree of association between their extreme realizations. Existing tail dependence coefficients (TDCs) are based on an asymptotic analysis of relevant…
We consider multivariate extreme value statistics for independent but nonidentically distributed random vectors. In particular, the data may have varying tail copulas and also heteroscedastic marginal distributions. Assuming smoothly…
We investigate the relaxation of long-tailed distributions under stochastic dynamics that do not support such tails. Linear relaxation is found to be a borderline case in which long tails are exponentially suppressed in time but not…
Let F be a distribution function with negative mean and regularly varying right tail. Under a mild smoothness condition we derive higher order asymptotic expansions for the tail distribution of the maxima of the random walk generated by F.…
Heavy-tailed phenomena appear across diverse domains --from wealth and firm sizes in economics to network traffic, biological systems, and physical processes-- characterized by the disproportionate influence of extreme values. These…
The Weibull tail-coefficient (WTC) plays a crucial role in extreme value statistics when dealing with Weibull-type tails. Several distributions, such as normal, Gamma, Weibull, and Logistic distributions, exhibit this type of tail…