Related papers: Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely
Uncertainty quantification of predictive models is crucial in decision-making problems. Conformal prediction is a general and theoretically sound answer. However, it requires exchangeable data, excluding time series. While recent works…
Recent advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), particularly with Large Language Models (LLMs), have led to significant progress in narrow tasks such as image classification, language translation, coding, and writing. However, these…
Background. Expert observers and artificial intelligence (AI) progression metrics indicate AI will exceed human intelligence within a few decades. Whether general AI that exceeds human capabilities (AGI) will be the single greatest boon in…
Approximate message passing (AMP) methods and their variants have attracted considerable recent attention for the problem of estimating a random vector $\mathbf{x}$ observed through a linear transform $\mathbf{A}$. In the case of large…
We surveyed 582 AI researchers who have published in leading AI venues and 838 nationally representative US participants about their views on the potential development of AI systems with subjective experience and how such systems should be…
Despite the scale of capital being deployed toward AI initiatives, no empirical framework currently exists for benchmarking where a firm stands relative to competitors in AI readiness and deployment, or for translating that position into…
Terms Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and Human-Level Artificial Intelligence (HLAI) have been used interchangeably to refer to the Holy Grail of Artificial Intelligence (AI) research, creation of a machine capable of achieving goals…
The vastness of the design space created by the combination of a large number of computational mechanisms, including machine learning, is an obstacle to creating an artificial general intelligence (AGI). Brain-inspired AGI development, in…
Artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly used in recruitment, yet empirical evidence quantifying its impact on hiring efficiency and candidate selection remains limited. We randomly assign 37,000 applicants for a junior-developer…
There is both much optimism and pessimism around artificial intelligence (AI) today. The optimists are investing millions of dollars, and even in some cases billions of dollars into AI. The pessimists, on the other hand, predict that AI…
In Bayesian inference, we are usually interested in the numerical approximation of integrals that are posterior expectations or marginal likelihoods (a.k.a., Bayesian evidence). In this paper, we focus on the computation of the posterior…
Building a humanlike integrative artificial cognitive system, that is, an artificial general intelligence (AGI), is the holy grail of the artificial intelligence (AI) field. Furthermore, a computational model that enables an artificial…
Perhaps the most ambitious scientific quest in human history is the creation of general artificial intelligence, which roughly means AI that is as smart or smarter than humans. The dominant approach in the machine learning community is to…
This paper examines how artificial general intelligence (AGI) could fundamentally reshape the delicate balance between state capacity and individual liberty that sustains free societies. Building on Acemoglu and Robinson's 'narrow corridor'…
Generative AI systems often display highly uneven performance across tasks that appear ``nearby'': they can be excellent on one prompt and confidently wrong on another with only small changes in wording or context. We call this phenomenon…
Artificial Intelligence has made remarkable advancements in recent years, primarily driven by increasingly large deep learning models. However, achieving true Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) demands fundamentally new architectures…
This paper examines the profound challenges that transformative advances in AI towards Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will pose for economists and economic policymakers. I examine how the Age of AI will revolutionize the basic…
In the pursuit of realizing artificial general intelligence (AGI), the importance of embodied artificial intelligence (AI) becomes increasingly apparent. Following this trend, research integrating robots with AGI has become prominent. As…
What looks like acceleration can be a quiet transfer of burden from the present to the future. Attempts to replace human labor with AI systems are often presented as rational responses to technological progress, but that view is often…
A leading proposal for aligning artificial superintelligence (ASI) is to use AI agents to automate an increasing fraction of alignment research as capabilities improve. We argue that, even when research agents are not scheming to…