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We propose an interactive methodology for generating counterfactual explanations for univariate time series data in classification tasks by leveraging 2D projections and decision boundary maps to tackle interpretability challenges. Our…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-21 Udo Schlegel , Julius Rauscher , Daniel A. Keim

Given an observational study with $n$ independent but heterogeneous units, our goal is to learn the counterfactual distribution for each unit using only one $p$-dimensional sample per unit containing covariates, interventions, and outcomes.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-18 Abhin Shah , Raaz Dwivedi , Devavrat Shah , Gregory W. Wornell

Counterfactual Data Augmentation (CDA) is a commonly used technique for improving robustness in natural language classifiers. However, one fundamental challenge is how to discover meaningful counterfactuals and efficiently label them, with…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-05-24 Ananth Balashankar , Xuezhi Wang , Yao Qin , Ben Packer , Nithum Thain , Jilin Chen , Ed H. Chi , Alex Beutel

Inferring causal relationships between variable pairs in the observational study is crucial but challenging, due to the presence of unmeasured confounding. While previous methods employed the negative controls to adjust for the confounding…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-21 Yong Wu , Yanwei Fu , Shouyan Wang , Yizhou Wang , Xinwei Sun

We consider nonparametric inference of finite dimensional, potentially non-pathwise differentiable target parameters. In a nonparametric model, some examples of such parameters that are always non pathwise differentiable target parameters…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-07-14 Aurelien F. Bibaut , Mark J. van der Laan

We study policy evaluation of offline contextual bandits subject to unobserved confounders. Sensitivity analysis methods are commonly used to estimate the policy value under the worst-case confounding over a given uncertainty set. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-09-25 Kei Ishikawa , Niao He

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

The proximal causal inference framework enables the identification and estimation of causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding by leveraging two disjoint sets of observed strong proxies: negative control treatments and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-16 Antonio Olivas-Martinez , Peter B. Gilbert , Andrea Rotnitzky

We present Claim-Dissector: a novel latent variable model for fact-checking and analysis, which given a claim and a set of retrieved evidences jointly learns to identify: (i) the relevant evidences to the given claim, (ii) the veracity of…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-08-08 Martin Fajcik , Petr Motlicek , Pavel Smrz

Physical and optical factors interacting with sensor characteristics create complex image degradation patterns. Despite advances in deep learning-based super-resolution, existing methods overlook the causal nature of degradation by adopting…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2025-01-28 Zhengyang Lu , Bingjie Lu , Feng Wang

Counterfactual instances are a powerful tool to obtain valuable insights into automated decision processes, describing the necessary minimal changes in the input space to alter the prediction towards a desired target. Most previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-07 Robert-Florian Samoilescu , Arnaud Van Looveren , Janis Klaise

Structural models that admit multiple reduced forms, such as game-theoretic models with multiple equilibria, pose challenges in practice, especially when parameters are set-identified and the identified set is large. In such cases,…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-01-29 Nathan Canen , Kyungchul Song

Adapting to latent confounded shift remains a core challenge in modern AI. This setting is driven by hidden variables that induce spurious correlations between inputs and outputs during training, leading models to rely on non-causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Jialin Yu , Yuxiang Zhou , Haoxuan Li , Junchi Yu , Mengyue Yang , Yulan He , Nevin L. Zhang , Philip Torr , Ricardo Silva

We show that quantum oracles provide an advantage over classical oracles for answering classical counterfactual questions in causal models, or equivalently, for identifying unknown causal parameters such as distributions over functional…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-12-16 Ciarán M. Gilligan-Lee , Yìlè Yīng , Jonathan Richens , David Schmid

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

With the widespread accumulation of observational data, researchers obtain a new direction to learn counterfactual effects in many domains (e.g., health care and computational advertising) without Randomized Controlled Trials(RCTs).…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-01 Guanglin Zhou , Lina Yao , Xiwei Xu , Chen Wang , Liming Zhu

Making informed decisions about model adequacy has been an outstanding issue for regression models with discrete outcomes. Standard assessment tools for such outcomes (e.g. deviance residuals) often show a large discrepancy from the…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-04-02 Lu Yang

One of the fundamental challenges in drawing causal inferences from observational studies is that the assumption of no unmeasured confounding is not testable from observed data. Therefore, assessing sensitivity to this assumption's…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-06-25 Md Abdul Basit , Mahbub A. H. M. Latif , Abdus S Wahed

We study policy counterfactuals that impose path restrictions on a policy instrument over a finite window. Under a sequential intervention design, we define two counterfactual objects, policy-peg impulse responses and policy-path effects,…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Endong Wang

Predictive uncertainties in classification tasks are often a consequence of model inadequacy or insufficient training data. In popular applications, such as image processing, we are often required to scrutinise these uncertainties by…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-10 Iker Perez , Piotr Skalski , Alec Barns-Graham , Jason Wong , David Sutton