Related papers: Learning Robust Statistics for Simulation-based In…
This is a review of asymptotic and non-asymptotic behaviour of Bayesian methods under model specification. In particular we focus on consistency, i.e. convergence of the posterior distribution to the point mass at the best parametric…
In the causal inference literature an estimator belonging to a class of semi-parametric estimators is called robust if it has desirable properties under the assumption that at least one of the working models is correctly specified. In this…
Sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) techniques have been recently proposed for dealing with simulation-based models with intractable likelihoods. Unlike approximate Bayesian computation, SNPE techniques learn the posterior from…
Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a family of statistical inference techniques, which is increasingly used in biology and other scientific fields. Its main benefit is to be applicable to models for which the computation of the model…
We provide a general solution to a fundamental open problem in Bayesian inference, namely poor uncertainty quantification, from a frequency standpoint, of Bayesian methods in misspecified models. While existing solutions are based on…
Amortized simulation-based inference (SBI) methods train neural networks on simulated data to perform Bayesian inference. While this strategy avoids the need for tractable likelihoods, it often requires a large number of simulations and has…
Scientists and engineers use simulators to model empirically observed phenomena. However, tuning the parameters of a simulator to ensure its outputs match observed data presents a significant challenge. Simulation-based inference (SBI)…
Simulation-based inference (SBI) is a method to perform inference on a variety of complex scientific models with challenging inference (inverse) problems. Bayesian Optimal Experimental Design (BOED) aims to efficiently use experimental…
Linear mixed effects are considered excellent predictors of cluster-level parameters in various domains. However, previous work has shown that their performance can be seriously affected by departures from modelling assumptions. Since the…
In recent years dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large…
Inferring parameter distributions of complex industrial systems from noisy time series data requires methods to deal with the uncertainty of the underlying data and the used simulation model. Bayesian inference is well suited for these…
Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…
Models defined by stochastic differential equations (SDEs) allow for the representation of random variability in dynamical systems. The relevance of this class of models is growing in many applied research areas and is already a standard…
The growing availability of large and complex datasets has increased interest in temporal stochastic processes that can capture stylized facts such as marginal skewness, non-Gaussian tails, long memory, and even non-Markovian dynamics.…
Inferring the parameters of a stochastic model based on experimental observations is central to the scientific method. A particularly challenging setting is when the model is strongly indeterminate, i.e. when distinct sets of parameters…
The accessibility of vast volumes of unlabeled data has sparked growing interest in semi-supervised learning (SSL) and covariate shift transfer learning (CSTL). In this paper, we present an inference framework for estimating regression…
For stochastic process models, parameter inference is often severely bottlenecked by computationally expensive likelihood functions. Simulation-based inference (SBI) bypasses this restriction by constructing amortized surrogate likelihoods,…
Current experimental scientists have been increasingly relying on simulation-based inference (SBI) to invert complex non-linear models with intractable likelihoods. However, posterior approximations obtained with SBI are often…
For nearly any challenging scientific problem evaluation of the likelihood is problematic if not impossible. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) allows us to employ the whole Bayesian formalism to problems where we can use simulations…
We present Causal Posterior Estimation (CPE), a novel method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, i.e., models where the evaluation of the likelihood function is intractable or too computationally expensive, but where one can…