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This paper introduces a neural network-based nonlinear shrinkage estimator of covariance matrices for the purpose of minimum variance portfolio optimization. It is a hybrid approach that integrates statistical estimation with machine…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-23 Liusha Yang , Siqi Zhao , Shuqi Chai

Relying on recent advances in statistical estimation of covariance distances based on random matrix theory, this article proposes an improved covariance and precision matrix estimation for a wide family of metrics. The method is shown to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Malik Tiomoko , Florent Bouchard , Guillaume Ginholac , Romain Couillet

A popular regularized (shrinkage) covariance estimator is the shrinkage sample covariance matrix (SCM) which shares the same set of eigenvectors as the SCM but shrinks its eigenvalues toward its grand mean. In this paper, a more general…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-13 Esa Ollila , Daniel P. Palomar , Frederic Pascal

Linear shrinkage estimators of a covariance matrix --- defined by a weighted average of the sample covariance matrix and a pre-specified shrinkage target matrix --- are popular when analysing high-throughput molecular data. However, their…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-24 Harry Gray , Gwenaël G. R. Leday , Catalina A. Vallejos , Sylvia Richardson

We study the consistency of sample mean-variance portfolios of arbitrarily high dimension that are based on Bayesian or shrinkage estimation of the input parameters as well as weighted sampling. In an asymptotic setting where the number of…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-05-30 Francisco Rubio , Xavier Mestre , Daniel P. Palomar

The state-of-the-art methods for estimating high-dimensional covariance matrices all shrink the eigenvalues of the sample covariance matrix towards a data-insensitive shrinkage target. The underlying shrinkage transformation is either…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-11-25 Man-Chung Yue , Yves Rychener , Daniel Kuhn , Viet Anh Nguyen

This paper examines the usefulness of high frequency data in estimating the covariance matrix for portfolio choice when the portfolio size is large. A computationally convenient nonlinear shrinkage estimator for the integrated covariance…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-11-22 Cheng Liu , Ningning Xia , Jun Yu

This paper is concerned with optimizing the global minimum-variance portfolio's (GMVP) weights in high-dimensional settings where both observation and population dimensions grow at a bounded ratio. Optimizing the GMVP weights is highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-04-13 Maaz Mahadi , Tarig Ballal , Muhammad Moinuddin , Tareq Y. Al-Naffouri , Ubaid Al-Saggaf

Shrinkage estimators of covariance are an important tool in modern applied and theoretical statistics. They play a key role in regularized estimation problems, such as ridge regression (aka Tykhonov regularization), regularized discriminant…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2011-05-10 Noureddine El Karoui , Holger Koesters

In this study, we construct two tests for the weights of the global minimum variance portfolio (GMVP) in a high-dimensional setting, namely, when the number of assets $p$ depends on the sample size $n$ such that $\frac{p}{n}\to c \in (0,1)$…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 Taras Bodnar , Solomiia Dmytriv , Nestor Parolya , Wolfgang Schmid

Gaussian graphical models (GGMs) are widely used to recover the conditional independence structure among random variables. Recent work has sought to incorporate auxiliary covariates to improve estimation, particularly in applications such…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Ruobin Liu , Guo Yu

Estimating a covariance matrix is an important task in applications where the number of variables is larger than the number of observations. Shrinkage approaches for estimating a high-dimensional covariance matrix are often employed to…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-06-18 Anestis Touloumis

In portfolio analysis, the traditional approach of replacing population moments with sample counterparts may lead to suboptimal portfolio choices. I show that optimal portfolio weights can be estimated using a machine learning (ML)…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2018-07-31 Daniel Kinn

This paper considers the problem of estimating a high-dimensional (HD) covariance matrix when the sample size is smaller, or not much larger, than the dimensionality of the data, which could potentially be very large. We develop a…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-05-22 Esa Ollila , Elias Raninen

This paper presents how the most recent improvements made on covariance matrix estimation and model order selection can be applied to the portfolio optimisation problem. The particular case of the Maximum Variety Portfolio is treated but…

Applications · Statistics 2018-04-03 Emmanuelle Jay , Eugénie Terreaux , Jean-Philippe Ovarlez , Frédéric Pascal

Estimating large covariance and precision matrices are fundamental in modern multivariate analysis. The problems arise from statistical analysis of large panel economics and finance data. The covariance matrix reveals marginal correlations…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-04-17 Jianqing Fan , Yuan Liao , Han Liu

The global minimum-variance portfolio is a typical choice for investors because of its simplicity and broad applicability. Although it requires only one input, namely the covariance matrix of asset returns, estimating the optimal solution…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2021-01-08 Sven Husmann , Antoniya Shivarova , Rick Steinert

When shrinking a covariance matrix towards (a multiple) of the identity matrix, the trace of the covariance matrix arises naturally as the optimal scaling factor for the identity target. The trace also appears in other context, for example…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-09-01 Ansgar Steland

Shrinkage can effectively improve the condition number and accuracy of covariance matrix estimation, especially for low-sample-support applications with the number of training samples smaller than the dimensionality. This paper investigates…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2018-10-22 Jun Tong , Rui Hu , Jiangtao Xi , Zhitao Xiao , Qinghua Guo , Yanguang Yu

In this paper, we present a sharp analysis for a class of alternating projected gradient descent algorithms which are used to solve the covariate adjusted precision matrix estimation problem in the high-dimensional setting. We demonstrate…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2022-01-13 Xiao Lv , Wei Cui , Yulong Liu