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We propose a data-driven approach for propagating uncertainty in stochastic power grid simulations and apply it to the estimation of transmission line failure probabilities. A reduced-order equation governing the evolution of the observed…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2024-01-08 Hongli Zhao , Tyler E. Maltba , D. Adrian Maldonado , Emil Constantinescu , Mihai Anitescu

The parameters of a discrete stationary Markov model are transition probabilities between states. Traditionally, data consist in sequences of observed states for a given number of individuals over the whole observation period. In such a…

Computation · Statistics 2012-04-30 Alberto Pasanisi , Shuai Fu , Nicolas Bousquet

We consider Markovian open quantum systems subject to stochastic resetting, which means that the dissipative time evolution is reset at randomly distributed times to the initial state. We show that the ensuing dynamics is non-Markovian and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-10-05 Gabriele Perfetto , Federico Carollo , Igor Lesanovsky

In recent years, the discovery of complex dynamic systems in various fields through data-driven methods has attracted widespread attention. This method has played the role of data and has become an advantageous tool for us to study complex…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Min Dai , Ting Gao , Yubin Lu , Yayun Zheng , Jinqiao Duan

The rate of strong convergence is investigated for an approximation scheme for a class of stochastic differential equations driven by a time-changed Brownian motion, where the random time changes $(E_t)_{t\ge 0}$ considered include the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-03-02 Sixian Jin , Kei Kobayashi

The large time dynamics of a periodically driven Fokker-Planck process possessing several metastable states is investigated. At weak noise transitions between the metastable states are rare. Their dynamics then represent a discrete…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-09-05 Changho Kim , Peter Talkner , Eok Kyun Lee , Peter Hanggi

Leveraging recent work on data-driven methods for constructing a finite state space Markov process from dynamical systems, we address two problems for obtaining further reduced statistical representations. The first problem is to extract…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2024-05-14 Ludovico Theo Giorgini , Andre N. Souza , Peter J. Schmid

In this paper we investigate an M/M/$\infty$ queue whose parameters depend on an external random environment that we assume to be a semi-Markovian process with finite state space. For this model we show a recursive formula that allows to…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-04-27 B. D'Auria

We consider a class of piecewise-deterministic Markov processes where the state evolves according to a linear dynamical system. This continuous time evolution is interspersed by discrete events that occur at random times and change (reset)…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2017-11-15 Mohammad Soltani , Abhyudai Singh

We establish new conditions for obtaining uniform bounds on the moments of discrete-time stochastic processes. Our results require a weak negative drift criterion along with a state-dependent restriction on the sizes of the one-step jumps…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-02 Arnab Ganguly , Debasish Chatterjee

The stochastic theory of non-relativistic quantum mechanics presented here relies heavily upon the theory of stochastic processes, with its definitions, theorems and specific vocabulary as well. Its main hypothesis states indeed that the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2014-04-01 Maurice J. M. L. O. Godart

Many systems are partially stochastic in nature. We have derived data driven approaches for extracting stochastic state machines (Markov models) directly from observed data. This chapter provides an overview of our approach with numerous…

Cryptography and Security · Computer Science 2018-06-26 Richard R. Brooks , Lu Yu , Yu Fu , Guthrie Cordone , Jon Oakley , Xingsi Zhong

The reduction of a continuous Markov process with multiple metastable states to a discrete rate process is investigated in the presence of slow time dependent parameters such as periodic external forces or slowly fluctuating barrier…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Peter Talkner , Jerzy Luczka

We present a Markov-chain analysis of blockwise-stochastic algorithms for solving partially block-separable optimization problems. Our main contributions to the extensive literature on these methods are statements about the Markov operators…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-11-01 D. Russell Luke

Multi-state models are frequently applied for representing processes evolving through a discrete set of state. Important classes of multi-state models arise when transitions between states may depend on the time since entry into the current…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-28 Rosario Barone , Andrea Tancredi

Piecewise-deterministic Markov processes combine continuous in time dynamics with jump events, the rates of which generally depend on the continuous variables and thus are not constants. This leads to a problem in a Monte-Carlo simulation…

Computational Physics · Physics 2025-01-14 Arkady Pikovsky

Weconsider Markov decision processes arising from a Markov model of an underlying natural phenomenon. Such phenomena are usually periodic (e.g. annual) in time, and so the Markov processes modelling them must be time-inhomogeneous, with…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-09-17 Arash Khojaste , Geoffrey Pritchard , Golbon Zakeri

In multi-period stochastic optimization problems, the future optimal decision is a random variable whose distribution depends on the parameters of the optimization problem. We analyze how the expected value of this random variable changes…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2020-01-28 Bar Light

Statistical (machine learning) tools for equation discovery require large amounts of data that are typically computer generated rather than experimentally observed. Multiscale modeling and stochastic simulations are two areas where learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-03-17 Joseph Bakarji , Daniel M. Tartakovsky

A novel class of non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes relying on continuous-time piecewise-deterministic Markov Processes has recently emerged. In these algorithms, the state of the Markov process evolves according to a…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-16 Paul Vanetti , Alexandre Bouchard-Côté , George Deligiannidis , Arnaud Doucet