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For counterfactual policy evaluation, it is important to ensure that treatment parameters are relevant to policies in question. This is especially challenging under unobserved heterogeneity, as is well featured in the definition of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-08-08 Sukjin Han , Shenshen Yang

Given an (optimal) dynamic treatment rule, it may be of interest to evaluate that rule -- that is, to ask the causal question: what is the expected outcome had every subject received treatment according to that rule? In this paper, we study…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-27 Lina Montoya , Jennifer Skeem , Mark van der Laan , Maya Petersen

Quantile optimal treatment regimes (OTRs) aim to assign treatments that maximize a specified quantile of patients' outcomes. Compared to treatment regimes that target the mean outcomes, quantile OTRs offer fairer regimes when a lower…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-07 Junwen Xia , Jingxiao Zhang , Dehan Kong

Researchers are often interested in evaluating the impact of a policy on the entire (or specific parts of the) distribution of the outcome of interest. In this paper, I provide a method to recover the whole distribution of the untreated…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-05-22 Andrea Ciaccio

Dynamic treatment regimes operationalize the clinical decision process as a sequence of functions, one for each clinical decision, where each function takes as input up-to-date patient information and gives as output a single recommended…

Methodology · Statistics 2012-08-08 Eric B. Laber , Daniel J. Lizotte , Bradley Ferguson

One of the major challenges in estimating conditional potential outcomes and conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is the presence of hidden confounders. Since testing for hidden confounders cannot be accomplished only with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-17 Ahmed Aloui , Juncheng Dong , Ali Hasan , Vahid Tarokh

In an era where diverse and complex data are increasingly accessible, the precise prediction of individual treatment effects (ITE) becomes crucial across fields such as healthcare, economics, and public policy. Current state-of-the-art…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-28 Baozhen Wang , Xingye Qiao

The estimation of Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATE) is crucial for understanding the heterogeneity of treatment effects in clinical trials. We evaluate the performance of common methods, including causal forests and various…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-07-12 Oshri Machluf , Tzviel Frostig , Gal Shoham , Tomer Milo , Elad Berkman , Raviv Pryluk

Estimating how a treatment affects units individually, known as heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) estimation, is an essential part of decision-making and policy implementation. The accumulation of large amounts of data in many domains,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-28 Christopher Tran , Elena Zheleva

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity has become increasingly important in many fields. In this paper we study distributions and quantiles of individual treatment effects to provide a more comprehensive and robust understanding of…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Zhe Chen , Xinran Li

Participants in online experiments often enroll over time, which can compromise sample representativeness due to temporal shifts in covariates. This issue is particularly critical in A/B tests, online controlled experiments extensively used…

General Economics · Economics 2026-03-30 Chen Wang , Shichao Han , Shan Huang

This paper proposes an efficient quantum train engine (EQuaTE), a novel tool for quantum machine learning software which plots gradient variances to check whether our quantum neural network (QNN) falls into local minima (called barren…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-02-09 Soohyun Park , Won Joon Yun , Chanyoung Park , Youn Kyu Lee , Soyi Jung , Hao Feng , Joongheon Kim

Platform trials are multi-arm designs that simultaneously evaluate multiple treatments for a single disease within the same overall trial structure. Unlike traditional randomized controlled trials, they allow treatment arms to enter and…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-16 Michele Santacatterina , Federico Macchiavelli Giron , Xinyi Zhang , Ivan Diaz

In streaming platforms churn is extremely costly, yet A/B tests are typically evaluated using outcomes observed within a limited experimental horizon. Even when both short- and predicted long-term engagement metrics are considered, they may…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Dario Simionato , Andrea Tonon , Mingxue Wang , Weiguo Wang , Tong Gui , Xiaoyue Li

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are personalized, adaptive, multi-stage treatment plans that adapt treatment decisions both to an individual's initial features and to intermediate outcomes and features at each subsequent stage, which are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-09-22 Yichun Hu , Nathan Kallus

Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects is important to tailor treatments to those individuals who would most likely benefit. However, conditional average treatment effect predictors may often be trained on one population but possibly…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-18 Christoph Kern , Michael Kim , Angela Zhou

We analyse quantile temporal-difference learning (QTD), a distributional reinforcement learning algorithm that has proven to be a key component in several successful large-scale applications of reinforcement learning. Despite these…

We present Neural Quantile Estimation (NQE), a novel Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) method based on conditional quantile regression. NQE autoregressively learns individual one dimensional quantiles for each posterior dimension,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-22 He Jia

In this study, we develop a novel estimation method for quantile treatment effects (QTE) under rank invariance and rank stationarity assumptions. Ishihara (2020) explores identification of the nonseparable panel data model under these…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-11-18 Takuya Ishihara

This study investigates the identification power gained by combining experimental data, in which treatment is randomized, with observational data, in which treatment is self-selected, for distributional treatment effect (DTE) parameters.…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-24 Shosei Sakaguchi