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We study the problem of inferring heterogeneous treatment effects from time-to-event data. While both the related problems of (i) estimating treatment effects for binary or continuous outcomes and (ii) predicting survival outcomes have been…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-25 Alicia Curth , Changhee Lee , Mihaela van der Schaar

Studies often report estimates of the average treatment effect. While the ATE summarizes the effect of a treatment on average, it does not provide any information about the effect of treatment within any individual. A treatment strategy…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-13 Nicholas T. Williams , Katherine L. Hoffman Iván Díaz , Kara E. Rudolph

Evolutionary search via the quality-diversity (QD) paradigm can discover highly performing solutions in different behavioural niches, showing considerable potential in complex real-world scenarios such as evolutionary robotics. Yet most QD…

Neural and Evolutionary Computing · Computer Science 2024-04-10 Roberto Gallotta , Antonios Liapis , Georgios N. Yannakakis

Contextual bandit algorithms often estimate reward models to inform decision-making. However, true rewards can contain action-independent redundancies that are not relevant for decision-making. We show it is more data-efficient to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-27 Aldo Gael Carranza , Sanath Kumar Krishnamurthy , Susan Athey

Analyses of environmental phenomena often are concerned with understanding unlikely events such as floods, heatwaves, droughts or high concentrations of pollutants. Yet the majority of the causal inference literature has focused on…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-09-09 Shuo Sun , Erica E. M. Moodie , Johanna G. Nešlehová

Adaptive experiments improve efficiency by adjusting treatment assignments based on past outcomes, but this adaptivity breaks the i.i.d.\ assumptions that underpin classical asymptotics. At the same time, many questions of interest are…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-05 Houssam Zenati , Bariscan Bozkurt , Arthur Gretton

We propose a ridesharing strategy with integrated transit in which a private on-demand mobility service operator may drop off a passenger directly door-to-door, commit to dropping them at a transit station or picking up from a transit…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Tai-Yu Ma , Saeid Rasulkhani , Joseph Y. J. Chow , Sylvain Klein

The growing demand for personalized decision-making has led to a surge of interest in estimating the Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE). Various types of CATE estimators have been developed with advancements in machine learning and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-04 Yiyan Huang , Cheuk Hang Leung , Siyi Wang , Yijun Li , Qi Wu

Cluster-randomized trials (CRTs) are widely used to evaluate interventions delivered at the clinic, practice, or community level. Although standard analyses typically target average treatment effects, such summaries mask potentially…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-16 Changjun Li , Xi Fang , Michael O. Harhay , Andrew B. Forbes , F. Perry Wilson , Guangyu Tong , Fan Li

Ridesharing services have revolutionized personal mobility, offering convenient on-demand transportation anytime. While early proponents of ridesharing suggested that these services would reduce the overall carbon emissions of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-09-21 Mahsa Sahebdel , Ali Zeynali , Noman Bashir , Prashant Shenoy , Mohammad Hajiesmaili

Causal machine learning holds promise for estimating individual treatment effects from complex data. For successful real-world applications of machine learning methods, it is of paramount importance to obtain reliable insights into which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-22 Joseph Paillard , Angel Reyero Lobo , Vitaliy Kolodyazhniy , Bertrand Thirion , Denis A. Engemann

Treatment effect estimates are often available from randomized controlled trials as a single average treatment effect for a certain patient population. Estimates of the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) are more useful for…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-12 Wouter A. C. van Amsterdam , Rajesh Ranganath

We consider estimating the conditional average treatment effect for everyone by eliminating confounding and selection bias. Unfortunately, randomized clinical trials (RCTs) eliminate confounding but impose strict exclusion criteria that…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-15 Eric V. Strobl , Thomas A. Lasko

Owing to the benefits for customers (lower prices), drivers (higher revenues), aggregation companies (higher revenues) and the environment (fewer vehicles), on-demand ride pooling (e.g., Uber pool, Grab Share) has become quite popular. The…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-02 Avinandan Bose , Pradeep Varakantham

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Vinod Kumar Chauhan , Lei Clifton , Gaurav Nigam , David A. Clifton

Most clinical trials involve the comparison of a new treatment to a control arm (e.g., the standard of care) and the estimation of a treatment effect. External data, including historical clinical trial data and real-world observational…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-03-17 Tianjian Zhou , Yuan Ji

Quantile regression is a technique to estimate conditional quantile curves. It provides a comprehensive picture of a response contingent on explanatory variables. In a flexible modeling framework, a specific form of the conditional quantile…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-08-31 Vladimir Spokoiny , Weining Wang , Wolfgang Karl Härdle

We propose a framework for testing the homogeneity of conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) across multiple experimental and observational studies. Our approach leverages multiple randomized trials to assess whether treatment…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-25 Ana Armendariz , Martin Huber

Recently, there has been great interest in estimating the conditional average treatment effect using flexible machine learning methods. However, in practice, investigators often have working hypotheses about effect heterogeneity across…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-13 Chan Park , Hyunseung Kang

We investigate the problem of estimating the average treatment effect (ATE) under a very general setup where the covariates can be high-dimensional, highly correlated, and can have sparse nonlinear effects on the propensity and outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-26 Jianqing Fan , Soham Jana , Sanjeev Kulkarni , Qishuo Yin
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