Related papers: Monitoring multicountry macroeconomic risk
Timely characterizations of risks in economic and financial systems play an essential role in both economic policy and private sector decisions. However, the informational content of low-frequency variables and the results from conditional…
We propose a regularized factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) model that allows for sparsity in the factor loadings. In this framework, factors may only load on a subset of variables which simplifies the factor identification and…
Along with the widespread adoption of high-dimensional data, traditional statistical methods face significant challenges in handling problems with high correlation of variables, heavy-tailed distribution, and coexistence of sparse and dense…
We introduce \underline{F}actor-\underline{A}ugmented \underline{Ma}trix \underline{R}egression (FAMAR) to address the growing applications of matrix-variate data and their associated challenges, particularly with high-dimensionality and…
Recent financial disasters emphasised the need to investigate the consequence associated with the tail co-movements among institutions; episodes of contagion are frequently observed and increase the probability of large losses affecting…
In the context of macroeconomic/financial time series, the FARS package provides a comprehensive framework in R for the construction of conditional densities of the variable of interest based on the factor-augmented quantile regressions…
A method for quantile-based, semi-parametric historical simulation estimation of multiple step ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) models is developed. It uses the quantile loss function, analogous to how the…
This paper investigates how to measure common market risk factors using newly proposed Panel Quantile Regression Model for Returns. By exploring the fact that volatility crosses all quantiles of the return distribution and using penalized…
We develop a Functional Augmented Vector Autoregression (FunVAR) model to explicitly incorporate firm-level heterogeneity observed in more than one dimension and study its interaction with aggregate macroeconomic fluctuations. Our…
We propose Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster (MQF$^2$), a global probabilistic forecasting method constructed using a multivariate quantile function and investigate its application to multi-horizon forecasting. Prior approaches are…
Recent economic events, including the global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic, have exposed limitations in linear Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) models for forecasting and structural analysis. Nonlinear dimension…
We propose a factor network autoregressive (FNAR) model for time series with complex network structures. The coefficients of the model reflect many different types of connections between economic agents ("multilayer network"), which are…
The analysis of the effects of monetary policy shocks using the common econometric models (such as VAR or SVAR) poses several empirical anomalies. However, it is known that in these econometric models the use of a large amount of…
We develop a Quantile Bayesian Vector Autoregression (QBVAR) to forecast real oil prices across different quantiles of the conditional distribution. The model allows predictor effects to vary across quantiles, capturing asymmetries that…
We develop a Bayesian non-parametric quantile panel regression model. Within each quantile, the response function is a convex combination of a linear model and a non-linear function, which we approximate using Bayesian Additive Regression…
This paper introduces non-linear dimension reduction in factor-augmented vector autoregressions to analyze the effects of different economic shocks. I argue that controlling for non-linearities between a large-dimensional dataset and the…
This paper proposes a semiparametric joint VaRES framework driven by realized information, mo tivated by the economic mechanisms underlying tail risk generation. Building on the CAViaR quantile recursion, the model introduces a dynamic…
Factor analysis is a flexible technique for assessment of multivariate dependence and codependence. Besides being an exploratory tool used to reduce the dimensionality of multivariate data, it allows estimation of common factors that often…
This paper extends quantile factor analysis to a probabilistic variant that incorporates regularization and computationally efficient variational approximations. We establish through synthetic and real data experiments that the proposed…
Given the high volatility and susceptibility to extreme events in the cryptocurrency market, forecasting tail risk is of paramount importance. Value-at-Risk (VaR), a quantile-based risk measure, is widely used for assessing tail risk and is…