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Predicting the time series of future evolutions of renewable injections and demands is of utmost importance for the operation of power systems. However, the current state of the art is mostly focused on mean-value time series predictions…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-05-01 Marco Jeschke , Timm Faulwasser , Roland Fried

The rapid growth of renewable energy penetration has intensified the need for reliable probabilistic forecasts to support grid operations at aggregated (fleet or system) levels. In practice, however, system operators often lack access to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Alireza Moradi , Mathieu Tanneau , Reza Zandehshahvar , Pascal Van Hentenryck

The widespread diffusion of distributed energy resources, especially those based on renewable energy, and energy storage devices has deeply modified power systems. As a consequence, demand response, the ability of customers to respond to…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-04-21 Francesco Conte , Matteo Saviozzi , Samuele Grillo

Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Qicheng Chang , Yishen Wang , Xiao Lu , Di Shi , Haifeng Li , Jiajun Duan , Zhiwei Wang

The large scale deployment of Advanced Metering Infrastructure among residential energy customers has served as a boon for energy systems research relying on granular consumption data. Residential Demand Response aims to utilize the…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2016-07-05 Datong Zhou , Maximilian Balandat , Claire Tomlin

Power systems face increasing challenges in maintaining resource adequacy due to lower operating margins, rising renewable energy uncertainty, and demand variability. Forecasting the probability distribution of peak demand on shorter…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-10-28 Buyi Yu , Wenyuan Tang

The increasing penetration of embedded renewables makes forecasting net-load, consumption less embedded generation, a significant and growing challenge. Here a framework for producing probabilistic forecasts of net-load is proposed with…

Applications · Statistics 2022-10-06 Jethro Browell , Matteo Fasiolo

Prospective power supply systems based on Renewable Energy Sources require measures to balance power generation and load at all times. The utilisation of storage devices and backup power plants is widely suggested for this purpose, whereas…

Physics and Society · Physics 2016-09-22 Stefan Weitemeyer , David Kleinhans , Lars Siemer , Carsten Agert

We present an online stochastic model predictive control framework for demand charge management for a grid-connected consumer with attached electrical energy storage. The consumer we consider must satisfy an inflexible but stochastic…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-07-07 Benjamin Flamm , Guillermo Ramos , Annika Eichler , John Lygeros

We present a method for constructing the log-optimal portfolio using the well-calibrated forecasts of market values. Dawid's notion of calibration and the Blackwell approachability theorem are used for computing well-calibrated forecasts.…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-06-30 Vladimir V'yugin

The importance of accurately quantifying forecast uncertainty has motivated much recent research on probabilistic forecasting. In particular, a variety of deep learning approaches has been proposed, with forecast distributions obtained as…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-11-11 Benedikt Schulz , Lutz Köhler , Sebastian Lerch

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) is essential for the reliable and economic operation of power systems. Though many STLF methods were proposed over the past decades, most of them focused on loads at high aggregation levels only. Thus,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-03-27 Yayu Peng , Yishen Wang , Xiao Lu , Haifeng Li , Di Shi , Zhiwei Wang , Jie Li

Electricity load consumption may be extremely complex in terms of profile patterns, as it depends on a wide range of human factors, and it is often correlated with several exogenous factors, such as the availability of renewable energy and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-02-03 Aleksei Kychkin , Georgios C. Chasparis

Aggregators of consumer energy resources (CERs) like rooftop solar and battery energy storage (BES) face challenges due to their inherent uncertainties. A sensible approach is to use stochastic optimization to handle such uncertainties,…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-11-03 Chatum Sankalpa , Ghulam Mohy-ud-din , Erik Weyer , Maria Vrakopoulou

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources introduces significant challenges to power grid stability, primarily due to their inherent variability. A new opportunity for grid operation is the smart integration of electricity…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-10-30 Janik Pinter , Frederik Zahn , Maximilian Beichter , Ralf Mikut , Veit Hagenmeyer

The increasing penetration of volatile renewables combined with increasing demands poses a challenge to modern power grids. Furthermore, distributed energy resources and flexible devices (electric vehicles, PV generation, ...) are becoming…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-04-01 Emrah Öztürk , Kevin Kaspar , Timm Faulwasser , Karl Worthmann , Peter Kepplinger , Klaus Rheinberger

Mid-term and long-term electric energy demand prediction is essential for the planning and operations of the smart grid system. Mainly in countries where the power system operates in a deregulated environment. Traditional forecasting models…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-12-29 Yuting Ding , Di Wu , Yi He , Xin Luo , Song Deng

Accurate production forecasts are essential to continue facilitating the integration of renewable energy sources into the power grid. This paper illustrates how to obtain probabilistic day-ahead forecasts of wind power generation via…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-16 Max Bruninx , Diederik van Binsbergen , Timothy Verstraeten , Ann Nowé , Jan Helsen

We propose a new forecasting method for predicting load demand and generation scheduling. Accurate week-long forecasting of load demand and optimal power generation is critical for efficient operation of power grid systems. In this work, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-10-10 Tong Ma , Renke Huang , David Barajas-Solano , Ramakrishna Tipireddy , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

Probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) is a key component in the extended tool-chain required for efficient management of smart energy grids. Neural networks are widely considered to achieve improved prediction performances, supporting highly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2021-01-12 Alessandro Brusaferri , Matteo Matteucci , Stefano Spinelli , Andrea Vitali