Related papers: Bayesian Inference and Global Sensitivity Analysis…
The dynamics of the solar wind depends intrinsically on the structure of the global solar magnetic field, which undergoes fundamental changes over the 11-yr solar cycle. For instance, the wind terminal velocity is thought to be…
Generation and load balance is required in the economic scheduling of generating units in the smart grid. Variable energy generations, particularly from wind and solar energy resources, are witnessing a rapid boost, and, it is anticipated…
This paper outlines a methodology for Bayesian multimodel uncertainty quantification (UQ) and propagation and presents an investigation into the effect of prior probabilities on the resulting uncertainties. The UQ methodology is adapted…
We use Gaussian stochastic weight averaging (SWAG) to assess the model-form uncertainty associated with neural-network-based function approximation relevant to fluid flows. SWAG approximates a posterior Gaussian distribution of each weight,…
Decadal climate predictions, which are initialized with observed conditions, are characterized by two main sources of uncertainties--internal and model variabilities. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations from the CMIP5 decadal…
Aggregated stochastic characteristics of geographically distributed wind generation will provide valuable information for secured and economical system operation in electricity markets. This paper focuses on the uncertainty set prediction…
The major sources of the Soft X-ray Background (SXRB), besides distinct structures as supernovae and superbubbles (e.g. Loop I), are: (i) an absorbed extragalactic emission following a power law, (ii) an absorbed thermal component ~2x10^6…
Motivated by the pursuit of safe, reliable, and weather-tolerant urban air mobility (UAM) solutions, this work proposes a generative modeling approach for characterizing microweather wind velocities. Microweather, or the weather conditions…
High resolution observations have permitted to resolve the solar prominences/filaments as sets of threads/fibrils. However, the values of the physical parameters of these threads and their structuring remain poorly constrained. We use…
Atmospheric neutral density is a crucial component to accurately predict and track the motion of satellites. During periods of elevated solar and geomagnetic activity atmospheric neutral density becomes highly variable and dynamic. This…
With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate…
An empirical model for forecasting solar wind speed related geomagnetic events is presented here. The model is based on the estimated location and size of solar coronal holes. This method differs from models that are based on photospheric…
The intensity and energy spectrum of galactic cosmic rays in the heliosphere are significantly influenced by the 11-year solar cycle, a phenomenon known as solar modulation. Understanding this effect and its underlying physical mechanisms…
Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations have revealed that most of the solar wind acceleration occurs very close to the Sun. This acceleration is partly due to the global electric potential originating from the mass disparity between…
Despite the strong predictive performance of deep learning models for traffic prediction, their widespread deployment in real-world intelligent transportation systems has been restrained by a lack of interpretability. Uncertainty…
An important factor limiting our ability to understand the production and propagation of cosmic rays pertains to the effects of heliospheric forces, commonly known as solar modulation. The solar wind is capable of generating time and…
The process by which the Sun affects the terrestrial environment on short timescales is predominately driven by the amount of magnetic reconnection between the solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. Reconnection occurs most efficiently when…
We study three CME/ICME events (2008 June 1-6, 2009 February 13-18, 2010 April 3-5) tracked from Sun to 1 AU in remote-sensing observations of STEREO Heliospheric Imagers and in situ plasma and magnetic field measurements. We focus on the…
In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ) - the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model - are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update…
Forecasting the wide variety of high-impact weather events experienced globally is a challenge for both Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and it is critical that such models be properly verified…