Related papers: Bayesian Inference and Global Sensitivity Analysis…
Accurate Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) forecasting is critical for grid stability, particularly in arid regions characterized by rapid aerosol fluctuations. While recent trends favor computationally expensive Transformer-based…
The properties of the solar wind, as measured in situ throughout the heliosphere, depend both on the characteristics of its coronal source and on the intrinsic processes governing its interplanetary evolution. Recently, radial and Parker…
For objects in the low Earth orbit region, uncertainty in atmospheric density estimation is an important source of orbit prediction error, which is critical for space situational awareness activities such as the satellite conjunction…
We investigate the response of outer radiation belt electron fluxes to different solar wind and geomagnetic indices using an interpretable machine learning method. We reconstruct the electron flux variation during 19 enhancement and 7…
There are essentially three kinds of approaches to Uncertainty Quantification (UQ): (A) robust optimization, (B) Bayesian, (C) decision theory. Although (A) is robust, it is unfavorable with respect to accuracy and data assimilation. (B)…
Solar wind-magnetosphere coupling, its causes and consequences have been studied for the last several decades. However, the assessment of continuously changing behaviour of the sun, plasma and field flows in the interplanetary space and…
Surface solar irradiance varies on scales as small as seconds or meters due to scattering and absorption by the atmosphere. Clouds are the main driver of this variability, but moisture structures in the atmospheric boundary layer and…
We investigate the relationship between spectral solar irradiance (SSI) and ozone in the tropical upper stratosphere. We find that solar cycle (SC) changes in ozone can be well approximated by considering the ozone response to SSI changes…
Solar energetic particle (SEP) events, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, can generate severe hazardous radiation when accelerated by solar flares or shock waves formed aside from coronal mass ejections (CMEs).…
The present study focuses on identifying the parameters from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model that strongly influence the prediction of tropical cyclones over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) region. Three global sensitivity analysis…
One of the key challenges in solar and heliospheric physics is to understand the acceleration of the solar wind. As a super-sonic, super-Alfv\'enic plasma flow, the solar wind carries mass, momentum, energy, and angular momentum from the…
On 7 January 2014 an X1.2 flare and CME with a radial speed $\approx$2500 km s$^{-1}$ was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth ($\approx$36 hours) and…
The solar wind is a structured and complex system, in which the fields vary strongly over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. As an example, the turbulent activity in the wind affects the evolution in the heliosphere of the…
Global climate models parameterize a range of atmospheric-oceanic processes like gravity waves, clouds, moist convection, and turbulence that cannot be sufficiently resolved. These subgrid-scale closures for unresolved processes are a…
Wind energy resource assessment typically requires numerical models, but such models are too computationally intensive to consider multi-year timescales. Increasingly, unsupervised machine learning techniques are used to identify a small…
Galactic winds shape galaxy evolution; however, the outflowing gas is complex: it consists of multiple ionization phases, and its properties vary spatially. Therefore, methods that combine high-fidelity observations with state-of-the-art…
Aerosols' impact on the performance of a clear-sky solar irradiance model is often evaluated from the perspective of the overall accuracy of estimates. This study assesses the aerosol role in clear-sky solar irradiance modelling from a…
Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) is frequently used to analyze the influence of uncertain parameters in mathematical models and simulations. In principle, tools from GSA may be extended to analyze the influence of parameters in statistical…
The probability distributions (PDFs) of the differences of any physical variable in the intermittent, turbulent interplanetary medium are scale dependent. Strong non-Gaussianity of solar wind fluctuations applies for short time-lag…
Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is essential for the reliable application of computational models in engineering and science. Among surrogate modeling techniques, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) is particularly valuable for its…